Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Froglings, while the market favors PlayTime (74%). 13 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Froglings vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

13 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (42%) · Froglings at 26¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings26¢PlayTime74¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 42%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 26¢

-48% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidFroglings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

13 of 31 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings26%

PlayTime74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings13 traders

Total Value$40.4K

Total Shares96,674

Combined PnL$-8.2K

PlayTime18 traders

Total Value$35.0K

Total Shares49,629

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Froglings — 42%PlayTime — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFroglings 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFroglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Froglingsavg 58.7¢	$17.9K	$18.3K	+$401.82	55% 853-709 (1562)
8A 0x8a68...5765	PlayTimeavg 64.8¢	$15.6K	$15.9K	+$298.05	—
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Froglingsavg 56.6¢	$12.6K	$7.0K	$-5.6K	59% 1041-732 (1773)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Froglingsavg 37¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$220.3	46% 683-804 (1487)
GX gxxyy	PlayTimeavg 70.1¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$158.52	70% 536-233 (769)
Medo3DCTR	Froglingsavg 33.6¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$208.33	41% 203-295 (498)
QW qwerqr1251251	PlayTimeavg 74¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$18.94	71% 345-143 (488)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Froglingsavg 57.4¢	$5.1K	$2.8K	$-2.3K	54% 1198-1033 (2231)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	PlayTimeavg 47.2¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$341.24	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
NO nomoredream	PlayTimeavg 70.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$75.94	61% 377-238 (615)
FatsLivesMatter	PlayTimeavg 70.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$83.65	60% 84-56 (140)
GO GooGooGaga1	PlayTimeavg 69.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$77.79	76% 95-30 (125)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Froglingsavg 62.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$47.93	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 62.8¢	$967.4	$870.29	-$97.11
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 35.2¢	$541.54	$670.06	+$145.04
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Froglingsavg 34.8¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$444.35	48% 896-957 (1853)
alpheclabs2	PlayTimeavg 40.2¢	$703.59	$1.3K	+$592.89	47% 1783-1996 (3779)
maytopmayCTR	Froglingsavg 63.6¢	$809.38	$763.86	-$45.52	59% 339-232 (571)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$734.47	-$15.39	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 51.1¢	$378.07	$543.84	+$193.78
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 50.3¢	$362.15	$190.62	-$209.17
GT gt7238	PlayTimeavg 44.1¢	$357.95	$523.73	+$165.79	45% 703-875 (1578)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	PlayTimeavg 69.6¢	$479.81	$503.25	+$23.43	55% 3938-3278 (7216)
CI cigarettes	PlayTimeavg 35.4¢	$158.11	$327.91	+$169.8	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Froglingsavg 57.3¢	$309.53	$323.91	+$14.38	51% 713-675 (1388)
VI vibing123CTR	Froglingsavg 50¢	$346.99	$251.57	+$78.07	51% 1786-1684 (3470)
PA pauleta23	PlayTimeavg 68.8¢	$230	$229.09	-$0.91	65% 25766-13860 (39626)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Froglingsavg 43¢	$96.55	$165.03	+$68.48	53% 6776-6000 (12776)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Froglingsavg 60.9¢	$163.22	$160.74	-$2.48	59% 7407-5125 (12532)

Sisyphus-CTR

Froglings

Invested

$17,884.05

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$401.82

Record

55%

853-709 (1562)

0x8a68...5765

PlayTime

Invested

$15,629.73

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$298.05

Record

—

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Froglings

Invested

$12,574.31

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

59%

1041-732 (1773)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Froglings

Invested

$5,320.47

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$220.3

Record

46%

683-804 (1487)

gxxyy

PlayTime

Invested

$4,898.52

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$158.52

Record

70%

536-233 (769)

Medo3DCTR

Froglings

Invested

$4,300.17

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$208.33

Record

41%

203-295 (498)

qwerqr1251251

PlayTime

Invested

$2,988.55

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$18.94

Record

71%

345-143 (488)

GeorgeReCTR

Froglings

Invested

$5,148.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

54%

1198-1033 (2231)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

PlayTime

Invested

$2,037.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$341.24

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

nomoredream

PlayTime

Invested

$2,040

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$75.94

Record

61%

377-238 (615)

FatsLivesMatter

PlayTime

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$83.65

Record

60%

84-56 (140)

GooGooGaga1

PlayTime

Invested

$1,500.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$77.79

Record

76%

95-30 (125)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$1,567.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$47.93

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Both legs:

Froglings$967.462.8¢-$97.11

PlayTime$541.5435.2¢+$145.04

RandomVibecoderCTR

Froglings

Invested

$1,764.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$444.35

Record

48%

896-957 (1853)

alpheclabs2

PlayTime

Invested

$703.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$592.89

Record

47%

1783-1996 (3779)

maytopmayCTR

Froglings

Invested

$809.38

Value

$763.86

PnL

-$45.52

Record

59%

339-232 (571)

38791873984189ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$1,079.97

Value

$734.47

PnL

-$15.39

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Both legs:

PlayTime$378.0751.1¢+$193.78

Froglings$362.1550.3¢-$209.17

gt7238

PlayTime

Invested

$357.95

Value

$523.73

PnL

+$165.79

Record

45%

703-875 (1578)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

PlayTime

Invested

$479.81

Value

$503.25

PnL

+$23.43

Record

55%

3938-3278 (7216)

cigarettes

PlayTime

Invested

$158.11

Value

$327.91

PnL

+$169.8

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Froglings

Invested

$309.53

Value

$323.91

PnL

+$14.38

Record

51%

713-675 (1388)

vibing123CTR

Froglings

Invested

$346.99

Value

$251.57

PnL

+$78.07

Record

51%

1786-1684 (3470)

pauleta23

PlayTime

Invested

$230

Value

$229.09

PnL

-$0.91

Record

65%

25766-13860 (39626)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Froglings

Invested

$96.55

Value

$165.03

PnL

+$68.48

Record

53%

6776-6000 (12776)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Froglings

Invested

$163.22

Value

$160.74

PnL

-$2.48

Record

59%

7407-5125 (12532)

Research grade

AvoidFroglings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

13 of 31 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFroglings 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFroglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.