Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (63%) · Xipto Esports at 81¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 9

Xipto Esports81¢Team Synapse19¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 81¢

+16% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 19 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports81%

Team Synapse19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports12 traders

Total Value$33.4K

Total Shares46,941

Combined PnL+$550.68

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares51,343

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Xipto Esports — 63%Team Synapse — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 65.5¢	$14.9K	$15.5K	+$570.09	59% 1036-727 (1763)
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 75.4¢	$8.4K	$9.8K	+$1.5K	55% 850-704 (1554)
GE GeorgeRe	Xipto Esportsavg 66.3¢	$5.4K	$4.5K	-$831.56	54% 1196-1033 (2229)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 30¢	$7.0K	$4.3K	$-2.7K	41% 198-289 (487)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 27.9¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$439.28	48% 895-955 (1850)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 68.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$81.57	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 68.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$33.68
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 26.7¢	$491.76	$607	+$115.24
XU xuxuntao	Xipto Esportsavg 84¢	$3.2K	$1.8K	-$507.19	60% 135-90 (225)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Synapseavg 27.9¢	$4.8K	$1.7K	$-3.1K	46% 680-798 (1478)
MA madar78ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 82.4¢	$2.1K	$727.72	+$85.67	67% 87-42 (129)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 27.9¢	$351.17	$402.77	+$109.32
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 82.4¢	$393.57	$324.94	-$23.64
R2 r2d2v2	Xipto Esportsavg 74¢	$599.99	$571.62	-$28.38	55% 321-267 (588)
PO PourpelNourpel	Xipto Esportsavg 72.4¢	$309.29	$380.41	+$71.12	51% 706-670 (1376)
maytopmay	Xipto Esportsavg 80¢	$327.9	$365.02	+$37.12	60% 336-227 (563)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Synapseavg 47.5¢	$485.02	$339.02	-$146	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Team Synapseavg 25¢	$5.2K	$268.88	-$9.03	61% 660-425 (1085)
PA pauleta23	Xipto Esportsavg 90.5¢	$410	$258.35	-$151.65	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 68.2¢	$179.18	$190.11	+$16.21	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 68.2¢	$120.8	$143.37	+$22.39
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 21.5¢	$52.92	$46.74	-$6.18
LR lryyy	Xipto Esportsavg 67.3¢	$148.07	$153.81	+$5.74	48% 40309-43267 (83576)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 90.9¢	$128.78	$105.05	-$23.73	59% 7405-5123 (12528)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 90.9¢	$100.45	$83.41	-$17.04
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 32.1¢	$28.32	$21.64	-$6.69
CA calculate10CTR	Team Synapseavg 23.3¢	$630.14	$83.76	+$47.15	54% 1396-1199 (2595)
NO nomoredream	Xipto Esportsavg 88¢	$171.92	$41.01	-$69.75	61% 372-237 (609)
SH shiifoo<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 70.1¢	$16.33	$15.85	-$0.48	48% 5213-5761 (10974)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 65.2¢	$10.17	$8.74	-$1.43	33% 1272-2598 (3870)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 39¢	$5	$4.23	-$0.77	32% 21943-45829 (67772)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$14,901.91

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$570.09

Record

59%

1036-727 (1763)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8,376.06

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

850-704 (1554)

GeorgeRe

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,357.66

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$831.56

Record

54%

1196-1033 (2229)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$7,042.89

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,387.95

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$439.28

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,868.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$81.57

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$1,377.0168.7¢-$33.68

Team Synapse$491.7626.7¢+$115.24

xuxuntao

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,153.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$507.19

Record

60%

135-90 (225)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,808.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

madar78ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,104.7

Value

$727.72

PnL

+$85.67

Record

67%

87-42 (129)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$351.1727.9¢+$109.32

Xipto Esports$393.5782.4¢-$23.64

r2d2v2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$599.99

Value

$571.62

PnL

-$28.38

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

PourpelNourpel

Xipto Esports

Invested

$309.29

Value

$380.41

PnL

+$71.12

Record

51%

706-670 (1376)

maytopmay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$327.9

Value

$365.02

PnL

+$37.12

Record

60%

336-227 (563)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$485.02

Value

$339.02

PnL

-$146

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$5,172.32

Value

$268.88

PnL

-$9.03

Record

61%

660-425 (1085)

pauleta23

Xipto Esports

Invested

$410

Value

$258.35

PnL

-$151.65

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$179.18

Value

$190.11

PnL

+$16.21

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$120.868.2¢+$22.39

Team Synapse$52.9221.5¢-$6.18

lryyy

Xipto Esports

Invested

$148.07

Value

$153.81

PnL

+$5.74

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$128.78

Value

$105.05

PnL

-$23.73

Record

59%

7405-5123 (12528)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$100.4590.9¢-$17.04

Team Synapse$28.3232.1¢-$6.69

calculate10CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$630.14

Value

$83.76

PnL

+$47.15

Record

54%

1396-1199 (2595)

nomoredream

Xipto Esports

Invested

$171.92

Value

$41.01

PnL

-$69.75

Record

61%

372-237 (609)

shiifoo<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$16.33

Value

$15.85

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

5213-5761 (10974)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$10.17

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$1.43

Record

33%

1272-2598 (3870)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.77

Record

32%

21943-45829 (67772)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 19 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.