Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?

64 of 105 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (61%) · Yes at 61¢ · $737K held · ends Nov 13

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

105

Yes 61%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$736.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 64 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 61%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

64 of 105 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed41 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes64 traders

Total Value$603.2K

Total Shares1,004,071

Combined PnL$-11.0K

No41 traders

Total Value$129.4K

Total Shares324,562

Combined PnL+$7.6K

Yes — 61%No — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

67 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sniperYes 73% · 33

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 42

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 100

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 61.9¢	$138.4K	$135.3K	$-3.1K	46% 459-547 (1006)
aenews2	Yesavg 57.4¢	$50.4K	$53.2K	+$2.8K	0% 0-127 (127)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 61.6¢	$50.1K	$48.0K	$-2.1K	0% 0-289 (289)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Yesavg 58.5¢	$42.5K	$43.9K	+$1.5K	1% 4-584 (588)
Dragontree	Yesavg 59.4¢	$35.9K	$36.0K	+$38.71	— 0-2 (2)
DR dromedaryy	Yesavg 54.8¢	$22.6K	$25.0K	+$2.3K	27% 41-112 (153)
HorribleWorkCTR	Noavg 31.2¢	$17.2K	$21.8K	+$4.6K	0% 0-74 (74)
Kettle	Yesavg 65.4¢	$23.3K	$21.5K	$-1.7K	— 0-13 (13)
Dropper	Yesavg 66.6¢	$23.6K	$21.4K	$-2.2K	72% 545-215 (760)
WordleAddict	Yesavg 57¢	$37.3K	$21.0K	+$1.7K	— 0-2 (2)
ET ethBELIVER	Yesavg 58.6¢	$13.9K	$14.1K	+$201.86	— 1-0 (1)
ID IDontLikeRiskCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$12.7K	$13.1K	+$441.38	— 4-14 (18)
pIebe	Yesavg 63.4¢	$14.4K	$12.8K	-$605.14	— 3-4 (7)
ME MemeKing20	Yesavg 59.4¢	$12.4K	$12.5K	+$134.65	—
DE defillama7	Yesavg 69.3¢	$14.0K	$12.2K	$-1.9K	69% 49-22 (71)
SA SaylorMoon	Yesavg 65¢	$12.1K	$11.3K	-$844.54	0% 0-50 (50)
CUTJALENHURTS	Yesavg 61.5¢	$11.4K	$10.9K	-$455.32	52% 2596-2434 (5030)
JO JokerTheClown	Yesavg 58.2¢	$9.9K	$10.2K	+$299.41	2% 4-193 (197)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 65¢	$14.8K	$8.7K	$-1.1K	1% 3-272 (275)
ED Eddd1xCTR	Noavg 43.8¢	$9.3K	$8.4K	-$912.8	— 1-2 (3)
CH chunqiuCTR	Noavg 36¢	$7.2K	$7.9K	+$709.68	— 0-1 (1)
RememberAmalekCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$6.8K	$7.8K	+$1.0K	55% 562-467 (1029)
PA pakukudolphi	Yesavg 66¢	$9.9K	$7.7K	-$809.37	— 1-0 (1)
WO woshiLimpehCTR	Noavg 39.8¢	$9.0K	$7.4K	-$20.73	—
88 881112CTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$8.3K	$7.3K	+$481.64	0% 0-417 (417)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$138,415.45

Value

$135.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$50,442.32

Value

$53.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

0-127 (127)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$50,066.43

Value

$48.0K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

0-289 (289)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Yes

Invested

$42,470.92

Value

$43.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

4-584 (588)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$35,935.64

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$38.71

Record

—

0-2 (2)

dromedaryy

Yes

Invested

$22,638.78

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

27%

41-112 (153)

HorribleWorkCTR

Invested

$17,203.18

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

0-74 (74)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$23,290.99

Value

$21.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Dropper

Yes

Invested

$23,587.13

Value

$21.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

72%

545-215 (760)

WordleAddict

Yes

Invested

$37,311.9

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

ethBELIVER

Yes

Invested

$13,854.39

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$201.86

Record

—

1-0 (1)

IDontLikeRiskCTR

Invested

$12,694.87

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$441.38

Record

—

4-14 (18)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$14,354.58

Value

$12.8K

PnL

-$605.14

Record

—

3-4 (7)

MemeKing20

Yes

Invested

$12,397.75

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$134.65

Record

—

defillama7

Yes

Invested

$14,047.27

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

69%

49-22 (71)

SaylorMoon

Yes

Invested

$12,110.86

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$844.54

Record

0-50 (50)

CUTJALENHURTS

Yes

Invested

$11,376.61

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$455.32

Record

52%

2596-2434 (5030)

JokerTheClown

Yes

Invested

$9,940.34

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$299.41

Record

4-193 (197)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$14,755.17

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

3-272 (275)

Eddd1xCTR

Invested

$9,270.58

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$912.8

Record

—

1-2 (3)

chunqiuCTR

Invested

$7,190.24

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$709.68

Record

—

0-1 (1)

RememberAmalekCTR

Invested

$6,801.7

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

562-467 (1029)

pakukudolphi

Yes

Invested

$9,865.14

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$809.37

Record

—

1-0 (1)

woshiLimpehCTR

Invested

$8,994.96

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$20.73

Record

—

881112CTR

Invested

$8,324.51

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$481.64

Record

0-417 (417)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 61%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

64 of 105 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed41 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

67 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sniperYes 73% · 33

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 42

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 100

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.