Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?

20 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 91¢ · $92K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$92.0K

Combined PnL

-$57.81

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$83.0K

Total Shares91,390

Combined PnL+$744.33

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares89,949

Combined PnL-$802.14

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 89.7¢	$15.7K	$15.6K	+$151.49	72% 1106-420 (1526)
PI pilimili	Noavg 89.4¢	$15.2K	$15.3K	+$100	0% 0-50 (50)
JJo	Noavg 89.5¢	$26.0K	$14.6K	+$314.6	— 0-7 (7)
AL allen114	Noavg 91.4¢	$14.5K	$14.2K	-$222.59	2% 1-52 (53)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 89¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$59	63% 175-102 (277)
BR bruhzilCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$361.58	— 0-4 (4)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 89.5¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$20	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$214.76	27% 41-112 (153)
Car	Noavg 87.4¢	$3.6K	$2.8K	+$106.72	69% 1400-641 (2041)
TR troim	Noavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$120	0% 0-332 (332)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 89¢	$3.4K	$1.8K	+$0	— 1-10 (11)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 89¢	$4.6K	$1.7K	-$0	23% 510-1692 (2202)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 90.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$5.02	— 0-12 (12)
pIebe	Noavg 89.4¢	$13.0K	$1.4K	+$82.51	—
KL klli27	Noavg 90.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$16.45	27% 499-1343 (1842)
clazzy1	Noavg 89¢	$890	$900	+$10	0% 0-37 (37)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$876.72	$669.62	-$207.1	0% 1-266 (267)
PA pagliacci4	Noavg 91¢	$514.46	$508.81	-$5.65	18% 7-32 (39)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 89.8¢	$420.11	$423.59	+$3.48	— 12-2 (14)
Humble-MonkCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$299.98	$284.98	-$15	0% 0-83 (83)
Lolakis	Noavg 85.9¢	$1.3K	$250.01	+$18.92	0% 0-31 (31)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 90¢	$90	$90	+$0	0% 0-23 (23)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$77.42	$81.72	+$4.3	42% 574-809 (1383)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84¢	$23.79	$24.99	+$1.2	40% 3001-4411 (7412)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$28	$20	-$8	47% 1610-1838 (3448)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$15,688.26

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$151.49

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

pilimili

Invested

$15,199.99

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

0-50 (50)

JJo

Invested

$25,962.47

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$314.6

Record

—

0-7 (7)

allen114

Invested

$14,456.33

Value

$14.2K

PnL

-$222.59

Record

1-52 (53)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$5,161

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$59

Record

63%

175-102 (277)

bruhzilCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,289.95

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$361.58

Record

—

0-4 (4)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$3,580

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$20

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,205.64

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$214.76

Record

27%

41-112 (153)

Car

Invested

$3,615.46

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$106.72

Record

69%

1400-641 (2041)

troim

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$120

Record

0-332 (332)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$3,396.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-10 (11)

SPLPB

Invested

$4,584.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

WarriorH

Invested

$1,632.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$5.02

Record

—

0-12 (12)

pIebe

Invested

$13,013.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$82.51

Record

—

klli27

Invested

$1,051.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$16.45

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

clazzy1

Invested

$890

Value

$900

PnL

+$10

Record

0-37 (37)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$876.72

Value

$669.62

PnL

-$207.1

Record

1-266 (267)

pagliacci4

Invested

$514.46

Value

$508.81

PnL

-$5.65

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$420.11

Value

$423.59

PnL

+$3.48

Record

—

12-2 (14)

Humble-MonkCTR

Yes

Invested

$299.98

Value

$284.98

PnL

-$15

Record

0-83 (83)

Lolakis

Invested

$1,278.8

Value

$250.01

PnL

+$18.92

Record

0-31 (31)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$90

Value

$90

PnL

+$0

Record

0-23 (23)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.42

Value

$81.72

PnL

+$4.3

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$23.79

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$1.2

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$20

PnL

-$8

Record

47%

1610-1838 (3448)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.