Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 15 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-08?

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 50¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 8

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

$145.32

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 49.5¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares19,674

Combined PnL-$724.02

No15 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares34,330

Combined PnL+$869.34

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Yesavg 54¢	$9.1K	$8.6K	-$510.07	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$7.0K	$7.5K	+$465.33	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 47¢	$8.5K	$4.0K	+$42.3	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$294.03	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 48¢	$722.53	$707.58	-$14.95	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
PT PT-S7	Yesavg 56.8¢	$880.66	$678.51	-$67.66	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$703.23	$567.94	-$9.59	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.6¢	$377.12	$349.1	-$27.36
└ No leg	Noavg 45.4¢	$200.7	$218.84	+$17.77
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$452.64	$479.62	+$26.98	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$458.99	$463.28	+$4.29	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 55.9¢	$445.73	$429.08	-$16.64	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 56.3¢	$448.54	$426.47	-$22.07	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 46¢	$293.58	$296.37	+$2.79	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 47.1¢	$183.64	$193.08	+$9.44	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$179.63	$188.38	+$10.24	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
RN1CTR	Noavg 45¢	$170.31	$175.86	+$5.54	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 55.5¢	$170.4	$165.49	-$4.9	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.5¢	$111.46	$101.36	-$10.1
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$58.94	$64.13	+$5.19
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 72.3¢	$221.21	$163.72	-$57.49	62% 2044-1228 (3272)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$150.51	$150.68	+$0.17	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
AV averagejoetraders	Yesavg 58¢	$116	$101	-$15	56% 681-529 (1210)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Yesavg 59.2¢	$109.03	$92.98	-$16.05	54% 677-566 (1243)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$57.45	$61.82	+$4.37	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$98.01	$51.46	-$0.49	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$29.5	$45.5	+$16	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$35.84	$28.28	-$7.56	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$27.1	$26.21	-$0.88	57% 24613-18229 (42842)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$9,073.05

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$510.07

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$7,039.45

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$465.33

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$8,458.33

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$42.3

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$3,065.4

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$294.03

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$722.53

Value

$707.58

PnL

-$14.95

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

PT-S7

Yes

Invested

$880.66

Value

$678.51

PnL

-$67.66

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$703.23

Value

$567.94

PnL

-$9.59

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Yes$377.1254.6¢-$27.36

No$200.745.4¢+$17.77

LimousinCTR

Invested

$452.64

Value

$479.62

PnL

+$26.98

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$458.99

Value

$463.28

PnL

+$4.29

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$445.73

Value

$429.08

PnL

-$16.64

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$448.54

Value

$426.47

PnL

-$22.07

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$293.58

Value

$296.37

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$183.64

Value

$193.08

PnL

+$9.44

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$179.63

Value

$188.38

PnL

+$10.24

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

RN1CTR

Invested

$170.31

Value

$175.86

PnL

+$5.54

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$170.4

Value

$165.49

PnL

-$4.9

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Yes$111.4655.5¢-$10.1

No$58.9445.5¢+$5.19

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$221.21

Value

$163.72

PnL

-$57.49

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$150.51

Value

$150.68

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

averagejoetraders

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$101

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

681-529 (1210)

oxe78sh4w98

Yes

Invested

$109.03

Value

$92.98

PnL

-$16.05

Record

54%

677-566 (1243)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$57.45

Value

$61.82

PnL

+$4.37

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.01

Value

$51.46

PnL

-$0.49

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$16

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.84

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$7.56

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$26.21

PnL

-$0.88

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.