Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 17 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Riga FC vs. FC RFS end in a draw?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 5.0¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

-$219.12

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 5¢

-85% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares31,018

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,282

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 65.1¢	$8.5K	$6.6K	$-2.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
DE 0xdea2...e981	Yesavg 36.7¢	$4.3K	$5.5K	+$1.9K	64% 18-10 (28)
WH whig	Yesavg 90¢	$900	$957.5	+$57.5	59% 423-293 (716)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 4.2¢	$54.69	$643.7	+$589.01	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 9.5¢	$1.2K	$615.55	-$576.38	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
CA canupdatelateron	Yesavg 95¢	$294.8	$296.55	+$1.75	65% 573-304 (877)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$45	$51	+$6	38% 1359-2193 (3552)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 17¢	$113.85	$28.1	-$85.75	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$55.75	$22.88	-$32.87	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$92.22	$19.5	-$72.72	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 5.8¢	$9.48	$8.09	-$1.39	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$10	$7.14	-$2.86	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 21.3¢	$196.22	$4.56	-$2.37	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$45.04	$4.07	-$0.34	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$76.62	$2.24	-$2.67	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$33.92	$1.28	-$4.17	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 18.1¢	$118.08	$1.27	-$2.79	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$1.09	$0.97	-$0.12	32% 7674-16005 (23679)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 27.6¢	$46.98	$0.74	-$7.57	28% 3390-8578 (11968)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 7.9¢	$0.4	$0.2	-$0.2	36% 6093-11041 (17134)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$8,524.75

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0xdea2...e981

Yes

Invested

$4,292.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

whig

Yes

Invested

$900

Value

$957.5

PnL

+$57.5

Record

59%

423-293 (716)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$54.69

Value

$643.7

PnL

+$589.01

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$1,191.93

Value

$615.55

PnL

-$576.38

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

canupdatelateron

Yes

Invested

$294.8

Value

$296.55

PnL

+$1.75

Record

65%

573-304 (877)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$51

PnL

+$6

Record

38%

1359-2193 (3552)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$113.85

Value

$28.1

PnL

-$85.75

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$55.75

Value

$22.88

PnL

-$32.87

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$92.22

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$72.72

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$1.39

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$2.86

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$196.22

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$2.37

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$45.04

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$76.62

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$2.67

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$33.92

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$4.17

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$118.08

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$2.79

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.12

Record

32%

7674-16005 (23679)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$46.98

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$7.57

Record

28%

3390-8578 (11968)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1505.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

1605.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.