Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 51¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 12

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.9K

Combined PnL

-$247.91

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 50.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 20 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares23,529

Combined PnL-$305.71

Over6 traders

Total Value$638.54

Total Shares1,302

Combined PnL+$57.8

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 53.1¢	$21.4K	$21.9K	+$439.98	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$14.4K	$14.9K	+$500.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.4¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$60.07
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 55¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$450	16% 18-98 (116)
VI vibing123	Underavg 53¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$40	63% 1099-655 (1754)
AN Anon455	Underavg 54¢	$569.76	$678.34	+$108.58	45% 182-223 (405)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51¢	$613.25	$637.3	+$24.05	2% 11-448 (459)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 54¢	$432	$428	-$4	15% 148-841 (989)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$365.68	$359.98	-$5.7	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$294.75	$254.4	-$40.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.3¢	$70.93	$105.58	+$34.65
SE sentrio	Underavg 52¢	$322.26	$327.29	+$5.03	39% 382-610 (992)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$498.83	$325.73	-$9.39	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$193.6	$182.33	-$14.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.5¢	$138.31	$143.4	+$5.09
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54¢	$270	$267.5	-$2.5	52% 490-447 (937)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$194.46	$266.62	+$72.16	55% 718-583 (1301)
NM NM-P	Underavg 54¢	$192.86	$191.24	-$1.62	59% 3478-2368 (5846)
GC GC-P	Underavg 54¢	$189	$187.25	-$1.75	21% 99-382 (481)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 69¢	$209.54	$171.17	-$38.37	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$174.57	$127.77	-$46.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.9¢	$34.97	$43.4	+$8.44
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 48¢	$170.03	$162.94	-$7.08	48% 101-110 (211)
0xheavy888	Underavg 53¢	$140.45	$141.78	+$1.33	55% 205-165 (370)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 54¢	$106.57	$108.54	+$1.97	46% 292-339 (631)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$68.83	$69.57	+$0.74	31% 407-907 (1314)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$69.61	$68.85	-$0.76	70% 1671-717 (2388)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$63.85	$64.55	+$0.7	67% 1661-813 (2474)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$48.76	$47.7	-$1.06	69% 2587-1181 (3768)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 52.6¢	$47.01	$47.01	+$0	55% 658-540 (1198)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.6¢	$24.71	$25.15	+$0.44
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$22.3	$21.86	-$0.44
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 67¢	$54.27	$40.5	-$13.77	60% 2603-1711 (4314)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 67¢	$54.27	$40.5	-$13.77	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 43.8¢	$120.59	$27.88	-$6.15	49% 684-724 (1408)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$21,429.95

Value

$21.9K

PnL

+$439.98

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Both legs:

Under$14,354.8253.1¢+$500.05

Over$7,075.1345.4¢-$60.07

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$450

Record

16%

18-98 (116)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$4,240

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$40

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$569.76

Value

$678.34

PnL

+$108.58

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$613.25

Value

$637.3

PnL

+$24.05

Record

11-448 (459)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$432

Value

$428

PnL

-$4

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$365.68

Value

$359.98

PnL

-$5.7

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

Under$294.7558.5¢-$40.35

Over$70.9333.3¢+$34.65

sentrio

Under

Invested

$322.26

Value

$327.29

PnL

+$5.03

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$498.83

Value

$325.73

PnL

-$9.39

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Over$193.647.3¢-$14.47

Under$138.3153.5¢+$5.09

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$270

Value

$267.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$194.46

Value

$266.62

PnL

+$72.16

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$192.86

Value

$191.24

PnL

-$1.62

Record

59%

3478-2368 (5846)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$209.54

Value

$171.17

PnL

-$38.37

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Both legs:

Under$174.5769¢-$46.8

Over$34.9739.9¢+$8.44

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$170.03

Value

$162.94

PnL

-$7.08

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$140.45

Value

$141.78

PnL

+$1.33

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$106.57

Value

$108.54

PnL

+$1.97

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$68.83

Value

$69.57

PnL

+$0.74

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.61

Value

$68.85

PnL

-$0.76

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.85

Value

$64.55

PnL

+$0.7

Record

67%

1661-813 (2474)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.76

Value

$47.7

PnL

-$1.06

Record

69%

2587-1181 (3768)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$47.01

Value

$47.01

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Both legs:

Under$24.7152.6¢+$0.44

Over$22.347.4¢-$0.44

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$54.27

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$13.77

Record

60%

2603-1711 (4314)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$54.27

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$13.77

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$120.59

Value

$27.88

PnL

-$6.15

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 20 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.