Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (47%) · Grizzlies at 62¢ · $265K held · ended Nov 5

Grizzlies62¢Pacers38¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$264.8K

Combined PnL

$-108.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 61.5¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies62%

Pacers39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies9 traders

Total Value$244.7K

Total Shares698,292

Combined PnL$-112.2K

Pacers10 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares32,286

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Grizzlies — 47%Pacers — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 9

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 56% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 55% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$318.0K	$218.2K	$-99.8K	44% 624-798 (1422)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Grizzliesavg 52.2¢	$31.3K	$21.0K	$-10.3K	53% 642-565 (1207)
FY FYYY0689CTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$10.0K	$6.3K	+$1.4K	47% 36-40 (76)
UB ubetteruuuu	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$11.9K	$4.5K	$-1.6K	49% 207-212 (419)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Pacersavg 50.2¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$858.01	52% 5953-5563 (11516)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Pacersavg 46¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$1.1K	48% 306-333 (639)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pacersavg 49.3¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	-$480.4	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Pacersavg 46.3¢	$1,000	$1.4K	+$328.99	54% 755-640 (1395)
DO DolphinBaller	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$1.0K	$700	-$340	44% 109-137 (246)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 45.2¢	$308.63	$436.69	+$128.06	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Pacersavg 60.1¢	$510.61	$392.29	-$118.33	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 60.1¢	$440.61	$297.09	-$143.53
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 43.8¢	$70	$95.2	+$25.2
HE Herdonia	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$405	$272.6	-$132.4	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$191.99	$255.99	+$64	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 47.6¢	$249.61	$209.03	-$40.59	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pacersavg 56.7¢	$264.52	$197.94	-$39.58	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 56.7¢	$147.48	$100.16	-$47.32
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$89.03	$97.78	+$7.74
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 52.5¢	$174.95	$155.47	-$19.48	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 52.5¢	$117.82	$105.48	-$12.34
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 60.6¢	$57.13	$49.99	-$7.14
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47.1¢	$36.83	$50.07	+$13.24	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$7.98	$10.72	+$2.74	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$4.56	$6.07	+$1.52	55% 6202-5084 (11286)
RL RLWG<$100	Grizzliesavg 50.7¢	$7.6	$5.25	-$2.35	50% 8211-8248 (16459)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$3.5	-$1.95	52% 8633-7856 (16489)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Grizzliesavg 55.2¢	$2.76	$1.75	-$1.01	50% 20843-21072 (41915)

BreakTheBank

Grizzlies

Invested

$318,015.8

Value

$218.2K

PnL

$-99.8K

Record

44%

624-798 (1422)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Grizzlies

Invested

$31,330.65

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-10.3K

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

FYYY0689CTR

Pacers

Invested

$10,000

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

47%

36-40 (76)

ubetteruuuu

Grizzlies

Invested

$11,899.99

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

207-212 (419)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,123.22

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$858.01

Record

52%

5953-5563 (11516)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Pacers

Invested

$2,760.72

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

306-333 (639)

FlaznorpCTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,404.62

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$480.4

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

pltrkr111CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$328.99

Record

54%

755-640 (1395)

DolphinBaller

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,040

Value

$700

PnL

-$340

Record

44%

109-137 (246)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$308.63

Value

$436.69

PnL

+$128.06

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$510.61

Value

$392.29

PnL

-$118.33

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

Both legs:

Pacers$440.6160.1¢-$143.53

Grizzlies$7043.8¢+$25.2

Herdonia

Grizzlies

Invested

$405

Value

$272.6

PnL

-$132.4

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Pacers

Invested

$191.99

Value

$255.99

PnL

+$64

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$249.61

Value

$209.03

PnL

-$40.59

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$264.52

Value

$197.94

PnL

-$39.58

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Both legs:

Pacers$147.4856.7¢-$47.32

Grizzlies$89.0356¢+$7.74

takeormakeARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$174.95

Value

$155.47

PnL

-$19.48

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$117.8252.5¢-$12.34

Pacers$57.1360.6¢-$7.14

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$36.83

Value

$50.07

PnL

+$13.24

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$7.98

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$2.74

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4.56

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$1.52

Record

55%

6202-5084 (11286)

RLWG<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$7.6

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$2.35

Record

50%

8211-8248 (16459)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$5.45

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$1.95

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.76

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 9

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 56% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 55% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.