Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 13 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5

13 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 3.0¢ · $65K held · ended Nov 5

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 3¢

-94% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 26 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares55,650

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Over13 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares71,293

Combined PnL$-7.5K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.9¢	$19.1K	$22.4K	+$3.3K	54% 18102-15230 (33332)
AC AckbarCTR	Overavg 48¢	$9.6K	$7.8K	$-1.8K	50% 20-20 (40)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$9.8K	$7.0K	$-2.8K	55% 62-50 (112)
AN analdesutructor	Underavg 51.2¢	$5.4K	$6.4K	+$1.0K	52% 182-166 (348)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.3K	$4.1K	$-1.2K	46% 1459-1718 (3177)
DA DaBossHoggCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$3.3K	$2.5K	-$784	51% 228-216 (444)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.2¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$25.69	46% 8511-10078 (18589)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$772.03	51% 1620-1528 (3148)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$447.56	57% 2711-2006 (4717)
BA BabooouCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$133	51% 228-220 (448)
Stickman22CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$122.5	52% 1710-1589 (3299)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$127.6	48% 60430-65044 (125474)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.2¢	$522.47	$588.36	+$74.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.9¢	$477.59	$518.79	+$53.51
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$195.89	58% 46107-33290 (79397)
SE sentrio	Underavg 50¢	$564.44	$798.07	+$233.64	50% 25689-25377 (51066)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 57.8¢	$554.78	$604.6	+$49.82	51% 25264-24010 (49274)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.8¢	$389.93	$411.23	+$21.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.2¢	$164.86	$193.37	+$28.52
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$362.19	$359.65	-$2.55	51% 3617-3540 (7157)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$160.96	$192.67	+$31.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$201.23	$166.98	-$34.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$340.09	$349.99	+$9.91	63% 9246-5377 (14623)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$179.09	$213.49	+$34.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$161	$136.5	-$24.5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52.2¢	$208.46	$283.57	+$75.1	51% 1871-1806 (3677)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 71.8¢	$230.39	$242.98	+$12.59	47% 11436-12872 (24308)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71.8¢	$147.5	$125.39	-$22.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.5¢	$82.89	$117.59	+$34.7
RN1	Underavg 52.9¢	$150.58	$200.9	+$50.32	53% 60814-53199 (114013)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 29.7¢	$144.22	$189.54	+$45.32	53% 4769-4309 (9078)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$161.9	$126.6	-$35.3	53% 12002-10530 (22532)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$73.11	$87.88	+$10.54	60% 4449-2940 (7389)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$69.08	$70.34	+$1.26	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$45.2	$35.73	-$9.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$23.88	$34.61	+$10.72
PA Pan9X	Underavg 73¢	$101.05	$43.84	-$23.37	50% 4291-4295 (8586)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$19,143.54

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

54%

18102-15230 (33332)

AckbarCTR

Over

Invested

$9,599.97

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

20-20 (40)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Over

Invested

$9,799.99

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

55%

62-50 (112)

analdesutructor

Under

Invested

$5,381.25

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

52%

182-166 (348)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,294.75

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

1459-1718 (3177)

DaBossHoggCTR

Over

Invested

$3,280

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$784

Record

51%

228-216 (444)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,905.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.69

Record

46%

8511-10078 (18589)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$3,144.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$772.03

Record

51%

1620-1528 (3148)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,247.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$447.56

Record

57%

2711-2006 (4717)

BabooouCTR

Over

Invested

$1,615

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$133

Record

51%

228-220 (448)

Stickman22CTR

Over

Invested

$1,487.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$122.5

Record

52%

1710-1589 (3299)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,200.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$127.6

Record

48%

60430-65044 (125474)

Both legs:

Under$522.4754.2¢+$74.09

Over$477.5935.9¢+$53.51

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,012.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$195.89

Record

58%

46107-33290 (79397)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$564.44

Value

$798.07

PnL

+$233.64

Record

50%

25689-25377 (51066)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$554.78

Value

$604.6

PnL

+$49.82

Record

51%

25264-24010 (49274)

Both legs:

Under$389.9357.8¢+$21.3

Over$164.8633.2¢+$28.52

HerdoniaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$362.19

Value

$359.65

PnL

-$2.55

Record

51%

3617-3540 (7157)

Both legs:

Under$160.9651¢+$31.7

Over$201.2347¢-$34.25

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$340.09

Value

$349.99

PnL

+$9.91

Record

63%

9246-5377 (14623)

Both legs:

Under$179.0951.2¢+$34.41

Over$16146¢-$24.5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$208.46

Value

$283.57

PnL

+$75.1

Record

51%

1871-1806 (3677)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$230.39

Value

$242.98

PnL

+$12.59

Record

47%

11436-12872 (24308)

Both legs:

Under$147.571.8¢-$22.11

Over$82.8927.5¢+$34.7

RN1

Under

Invested

$150.58

Value

$200.9

PnL

+$50.32

Record

53%

60814-53199 (114013)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$144.22

Value

$189.54

PnL

+$45.32

Record

53%

4769-4309 (9078)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$161.9

Value

$126.6

PnL

-$35.3

Record

53%

12002-10530 (22532)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$73.11

Value

$87.88

PnL

+$10.54

Record

60%

4449-2940 (7389)

ghorrockARB<$100

Over

Invested

$69.08

Value

$70.34

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

Both legs:

Over$45.249.3¢-$9.46

Under$23.8849¢+$10.72

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$101.05

Value

$43.84

PnL

-$23.37

Record

50%

4291-4295 (8586)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 26 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2256.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

2356.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.