Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 57¢ · $64K held · ended Nov 5

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.3K

Combined PnL

$372.59

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 57¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares28,996

Combined PnL+$685.91

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,154

Combined PnL-$313.32

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$33.9K	$36.0K	+$2.1K	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$18.5K	$19.8K	+$1.3K
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.4¢	$15.4K	$16.2K	+$821.95
TM TMingchan	Underavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.8K	+$600	60% 15-10 (25)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 46.9¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	+$255.46	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$195.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$60
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$346.04	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 43.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$33.82	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$137.41	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$89.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$512.75	$560.37	+$47.62
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$90	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.32	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$986.72	$1.0K	+$27.28	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$798.72	$810	+$11.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$188	$204	+$16
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$828.48	$857.13	+$28.64	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$513.22	$524.54	+$11.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$315.27	$332.58	+$17.32
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$748.87	$799.55	+$50.68	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$382.5	$405	+$22.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$366.37	$394.55	+$28.18
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$683.92	$703.65	+$19.73	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$474.07	$501.17	+$27.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.4¢	$209.85	$202.48	-$7.37
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$793.93	$603.75	-$28.3	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$297.69	$357.78	+$40.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$315.06	$245.97	-$69.03
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 51.2¢	$511.63	$540	+$28.37	53% 1083-956 (2039)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$490.96	$491.48	+$0.52	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$293.85	$297.68	+$3.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$197.11	$193.8	-$3.31
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 62¢	$233.35	$253.88	+$20.53	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Underavg 54.1¢	$149.05	$148.64	-$0.41	52% 946-882 (1828)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 54.2¢	$126.93	$126.36	-$0.57	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$21.36	$22.86	+$1.5	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$15	$13.8	-$1.2	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52.8¢	$10.55	$10.8	+$0.25	50% 8211-8248 (16459)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.04	$7.64	+$0.6	39% 1400-2160 (3560)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.1	$5.2	+$2.1	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.55	-$0.03	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$33,902.53

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

Under$18,526.0250.5¢+$1.3K

Over$15,376.5148.4¢+$821.95

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$600

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,365.36

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$255.46

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

Both legs:

Over$1,952.8146.9¢+$195.46

Under$1,02051¢+$60

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$2,392.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$346.04

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,928.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$33.82

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,691.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$137.41

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Under$1,178.6450.2¢+$89.79

Over$512.7546.7¢+$47.62

JAMJAMJAM4

Under

Invested

$1,529.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$90

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,306.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.32

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$986.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.28

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

Both legs:

Under$798.7253.2¢+$11.28

Over$18847¢+$16

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$828.48

Value

$857.13

PnL

+$28.64

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

Both legs:

Over$513.2249.9¢+$11.33

Under$315.2751.2¢+$17.32

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$748.87

Value

$799.55

PnL

+$50.68

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Under$382.551¢+$22.5

Over$366.3747.4¢+$28.18

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$683.92

Value

$703.65

PnL

+$19.73

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Both legs:

Under$474.0744.9¢+$27.1

Over$209.8554.4¢-$7.37

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$793.93

Value

$603.75

PnL

-$28.3

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Both legs:

Under$297.6950.8¢+$40.73

Over$315.0650¢-$69.03

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$511.63

Value

$540

PnL

+$28.37

Record

53%

1083-956 (2039)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$490.96

Value

$491.48

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

Both legs:

Over$293.8551.8¢+$3.83

Under$197.1148.3¢-$3.31

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$233.35

Value

$253.88

PnL

+$20.53

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Under

Invested

$149.05

Value

$148.64

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

946-882 (1828)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$126.93

Value

$126.36

PnL

-$0.57

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.36

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$10.55

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

8211-8248 (16459)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$0.6

Record

39%

1400-2160 (3560)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.1

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$2.1

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.