Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Trail Blazers (52%). 31 of 54 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers

31 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (57%) · Thunder at 49¢ · $910K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder49¢Trail Blazers51¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 57%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$910.4K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 48.5¢

-7% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

31 of 54 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 52%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder49%

Trail Blazers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder31 traders

Total Value$273.3K

Total Shares495,315

Combined PnL+$6.6K

Trail Blazers23 traders

Total Value$160.6K

Total Shares352,326

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Thunder — 57%Trail Blazers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpTrail Blazers 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

ctrThunder 52% · 31

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 60% · 53

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49.7¢	$375.0K	$364.4K	$-6.4K	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 49.7¢	$241.5K	$230.6K	$-10.9K
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 50.8¢	$129.5K	$133.8K	+$4.5K
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Thunderavg 52.4¢	$126.8K	$124.6K	$-2.2K	51% 711-691 (1402)
GO googleplay	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$51.9K	$53.5K	+$1.7K	49% 59-62 (121)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Thunderavg 50.1¢	$43.6K	$48.1K	+$4.5K	48% 515-569 (1084)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$28.9K	$27.0K	$-1.9K	54% 514-436 (950)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Thunderavg 52¢	$18.7K	$20.3K	+$1.6K	52% 2583-2418 (5001)
ST stackingsatsARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$20.6K	$19.8K	-$809.99	2% 4-180 (184)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$14.4K	$13.0K	$-1.3K
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52¢	$6.2K	$6.8K	+$540
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 50.4¢	$29.1K	$19.1K	-$8.06	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Thunderavg 52.8¢	$16.3K	$17.5K	+$1.1K	61% 908-580 (1488)
TH TheMathGod	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$16.1K	$16.3K	+$168.18	— 2-5 (7)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 51.5¢	$14.8K	$14.2K	-$400.41	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 51.5¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$162.49
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51.7¢	$7.0K	$6.4K	-$562.9
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 50.7¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	+$43.69	56% 3827-2993 (6820)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 49¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$327.79
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 50.7¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$284.1
CH ch27er	Trail Blazersavg 52.1¢	$14.3K	$12.0K	$-2.4K	19% 10-44 (54)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 50.4¢	$12.5K	$11.8K	+$237.46	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 50.4¢	$7.1K	$7.7K	+$572.25
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 49.7¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$334.8
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55¢	$10.3K	$9.7K	-$119.77	22% 17-62 (79)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.6¢	$4.9K	$5.4K	+$511.74
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 55¢	$4.9K	$4.3K	-$631.52
AP AppleTiiime	Trail Blazersavg 45.4¢	$10.2K	$9.7K	-$549.11	53% 83-74 (157)
RA Raisuu	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$9.0K	$8.6K	-$399.99	60% 21-14 (35)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Thunderavg 53¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$466.18	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
NS NS13CTR	Thunderavg 54¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$407.1	— 0-1 (1)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Thunderavg 48.3¢	$7.9K	$7.7K	-$204.18	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 48.3¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$338.81
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$134.62
Greedo	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$8.2K	$7.7K	-$536.99	49% 184-190 (374)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$14.9K	$7.5K	+$266.62	51% 354-335 (689)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$344.12
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.3¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$77.5
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$7.7K	$7.2K	-$416.65	62% 1004-624 (1628)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	Thunderavg 53¢	$6.4K	$6.8K	+$480	49% 603-624 (1227)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$6.9K	$6.6K	+$167.26	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 48¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$146.52
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 49.2¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$313.78

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$375,022.39

Value

$364.4K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$241,457.2149.7¢$-10.9K

Thunder$129,502.5950.8¢+$4.5K

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Thunder

Invested

$126,763.3

Value

$124.6K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

51%

711-691 (1402)

googleplay

Trail Blazers

Invested

$51,853.02

Value

$53.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

59-62 (121)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Thunder

Invested

$43,566.51

Value

$48.1K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

48%

515-569 (1084)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$28,868.59

Value

$27.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Thunder

Invested

$18,720

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

52%

2583-2418 (5001)

stackingsatsARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$20,639.85

Value

$19.8K

PnL

-$809.99

Record

4-180 (184)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$14,399.8548¢$-1.3K

Thunder$6,24052¢+$540

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$29,063.94

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$8.06

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

darkumbreon88CTR

Thunder

Invested

$16,318.36

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

908-580 (1488)

TheMathGod

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16,145.35

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$168.18

Record

—

2-5 (7)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$14,838.82

Value

$14.2K

PnL

-$400.41

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Thunder$7,617.1351.5¢+$162.49

Trail Blazers$6,970.5851.7¢-$562.9

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$12,998.27

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$43.69

Record

56%

3827-2993 (6820)

Both legs:

Thunder$6,417.5349¢+$327.79

Trail Blazers$6,580.7450.7¢-$284.1

ch27er

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14,330.3

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

19%

10-44 (54)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$12,462.07

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$237.46

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$7,091.7250.4¢+$572.25

Thunder$4,537.8949.7¢-$334.8

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10,252.53

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$119.77

Record

22%

17-62 (79)

Both legs:

Thunder$4,885.5546.6¢+$511.74

Trail Blazers$4,895.4755¢-$631.52

AppleTiiime

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10,223.99

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$549.11

Record

53%

83-74 (157)

Raisuu

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8,999.84

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$399.99

Record

60%

21-14 (35)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$7,282.7

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$466.18

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

NS13CTR

Thunder

Invested

$7,327.88

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$407.1

Record

—

0-1 (1)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$7,923.04

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$204.18

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Both legs:

Thunder$5,872.1548.3¢-$338.81

Trail Blazers$2,050.8951.1¢+$134.62

Greedo

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8,233.92

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$536.99

Record

49%

184-190 (374)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$14,878.8

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$266.62

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

Both legs:

Thunder$3,924.6852¢+$344.12

Trail Blazers$3,468.9346.3¢-$77.5

PacersThreeandahalf

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7,666.32

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$416.65

Record

62%

1004-624 (1628)

SuperMegaManCTR

Thunder

Invested

$6,359.96

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$480

Record

49%

603-624 (1227)

takeormakeARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6,912.02

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$167.26

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Both legs:

Thunder$3,586.448¢-$146.52

Trail Blazers$2,887.7549.2¢+$313.78

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

31 of 54 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 52%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpTrail Blazers 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

ctrThunder 52% · 31

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 60% · 53

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.