Magic vs. Kings: O/U 221.5

19 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 83¢ · $119K held · ended Nov 11

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$119.0K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 83¢

+75% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

19 of 33 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under19 traders

Total Value$98.4K

Total Shares112,242

Combined PnL+$36.8K

Over14 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares94,194

Combined PnL$-31.7K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 31

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47.7¢	$25.1K	$37.4K	+$12.3K	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 47.9¢	$13.5K	$23.0K	+$9.6K	47% 95-108 (203)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Overavg 53¢	$33.1K	$10.6K	$-22.5K	2% 2-128 (130)
HI hi774c	Underavg 47.3¢	$6.2K	$10.1K	+$3.9K	10% 46-435 (481)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 46¢	$5.0K	$9.4K	+$4.5K	59% 430-294 (724)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 47¢	$3.7K	$7.0K	+$3.2K	48% 515-569 (1084)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51.6¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$9.75	17% 75-358 (433)
VE Venusian	Underavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	28% 317-800 (1117)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46.8¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$1.0K	51% 354-335 (689)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 52¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$0.68	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 51¢	$4.6K	$1.5K	$-3.1K	1% 1-97 (98)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Overavg 51¢	$4.3K	$1.5K	$-2.8K	1% 4-383 (387)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$4.2K	$1.4K	$-2.8K	54% 514-436 (950)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 46.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$257.23	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 49.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$58.15	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
RN1	Underavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$61.98	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
TX txwd9991	Underavg 45¢	$460.7	$839.5	+$378.8	1% 1-82 (83)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 46.7¢	$1.2K	$816	+$154.33	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49¢	$537.61	$573.92	+$36.32	48% 231-247 (478)
LI Limousin	Underavg 48¢	$267.08	$462.03	+$194.95	29% 329-806 (1135)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$1.2K	$405.49	-$811.46	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$1.1K	$248.81	-$873.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$94.16	$156.68	+$62.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47.1¢	$194.94	$362.11	+$167.17	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 51.8¢	$228.97	$112.6	+$27.1	49% 498-518 (1016)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 51¢	$204	$72	-$132	12% 105-801 (906)
FU Fujimi888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$195.21	$68.9	-$126.31	— 2-6 (8)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$25,095.24

Value

$37.4K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$13,470.83

Value

$23.0K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

47%

95-108 (203)

MastermoneyCTR

Over

Invested

$33,074.43

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-22.5K

Record

2-128 (130)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$6,234

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

10%

46-435 (481)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$4,954.62

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

59%

430-294 (724)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$3,734.85

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

48%

515-569 (1084)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$2,614.25

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$9.75

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,476.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,758.82

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$2,140.14

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$0.68

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$4,612.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

1-97 (98)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Over

Invested

$4,303.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

4-383 (387)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,203.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,194.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$257.23

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,120.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$58.15

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,106.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$61.98

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

txwd9991

Under

Invested

$460.7

Value

$839.5

PnL

+$378.8

Record

1-82 (83)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,219.34

Value

$816

PnL

+$154.33

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$537.61

Value

$573.92

PnL

+$36.32

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$267.08

Value

$462.03

PnL

+$194.95

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,216.95

Value

$405.49

PnL

-$811.46

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Over$1,122.7951.9¢-$873.98

Under$94.1653.2¢+$62.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$194.94

Value

$362.11

PnL

+$167.17

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$228.97

Value

$112.6

PnL

+$27.1

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$204

Value

$72

PnL

-$132

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

Fujimi888CTR

Over

Invested

$195.21

Value

$68.9

PnL

-$126.31

Record

—

2-6 (8)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

19 of 33 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 31

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.