Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 28.5

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (39%) · Over at 73¢ · $65K held · ended Nov 10

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 39%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.8K

Combined PnL

-$395.15

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 72.5¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 18 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares41,538

Combined PnL-$404.83

Under11 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares37,696

Combined PnL+$9.68

Over — 39%Under — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 56.6¢	$17.9K	$16.5K	$-1.5K	57% 104-80 (184)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 38.3¢	$10.6K	$12.2K	-$504.36	28% 122-309 (431)
PR primmARB<$100	Overavg 62.1¢	$14.2K	$12.1K	$-1.1K	10% 18-162 (180)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.1¢	$7.6K	$8.9K	+$1.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$5.4K	$3.2K	$-2.2K
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$140.1	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.7¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$257.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$117.55
CM cm2897	Overavg 60.6¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$607.59	47% 428-476 (904)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$109.18	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$66.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$42.49
betdgeCTR	Underavg 41.3¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$381.8	45% 10-12 (22)
GA gaclfz	Overavg 73¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$12.54	5% 8-142 (150)
BI biying88888	Overavg 62¢	$977.32	$1.4K	+$451.78	19% 30-131 (161)
ET ethanazCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$76.42	1% 3-244 (247)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$916.95	$958.46	+$41.51	48% 436-463 (899)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 38.3¢	$1.4K	$912.06	-$541.21	47% 87-97 (184)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.3¢	$1.2K	$701.12	-$601.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.7¢	$159.91	$210.95	+$60.56
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$846.24	$838.54	-$7.7	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.4¢	$331.24	$426.04	+$94.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.3¢	$515	$412.5	-$102.5
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 40¢	$747.48	$784.85	+$37.37	34% 111-220 (331)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Underavg 27.1¢	$459.43	$466.68	+$7.25	59% 1209-854 (2063)
tradecraft	Overavg 56.9¢	$113.86	$116.01	+$2.15	18% 63-288 (351)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$66.02	$73.27	+$7.25	26% 122-345 (467)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 45¢	$35.55	$42.66	+$7.11	26% 55-158 (213)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$40	$42	+$2	49% 41-42 (83)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$72	$40.5	-$39.6	0% 1-225 (226)
QI qidao001<$100	Overavg 62.5¢	$32.02	$22.09	-$4.34	75% 18-6 (24)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.38	+$0.02	55% 78-63 (141)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$1.22	$1.25	+$0.03	44% 125-158 (283)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$17,947.83

Value

$16.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$10,647.89

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$504.36

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

primmARB<$100

Over

Invested

$14,243.95

Value

$12.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

Both legs:

Over$7,597.9662.1¢+$1.1K

Under$5,403.9646.2¢$-2.2K

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,865.29

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$140.1

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Under$3,068.1239.7¢+$257.65

Over$1,797.1761¢-$117.55

cm2897

Over

Invested

$3,499.53

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$607.59

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,405.35

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$109.18

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Under$2,055.7540.7¢+$66.69

Over$1,289.4856.2¢+$42.49

betdgeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,338.36

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$381.8

Record

45%

10-12 (22)

gaclfz

Over

Invested

$2,015.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$12.54

Record

8-142 (150)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$977.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$451.78

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

ethanazCTR

Under

Invested

$1,314.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$76.42

Record

3-244 (247)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$916.95

Value

$958.46

PnL

+$41.51

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,353.74

Value

$912.06

PnL

-$541.21

Record

47%

87-97 (184)

Both legs:

Under$1,193.8338.3¢-$601.77

Over$159.9158.7¢+$60.56

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$846.24

Value

$838.54

PnL

-$7.7

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Over$331.2456.4¢+$94.8

Under$51534.3¢-$102.5

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$747.48

Value

$784.85

PnL

+$37.37

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Under

Invested

$459.43

Value

$466.68

PnL

+$7.25

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

tradecraft

Over

Invested

$113.86

Value

$116.01

PnL

+$2.15

Record

18%

63-288 (351)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.02

Value

$73.27

PnL

+$7.25

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$35.55

Value

$42.66

PnL

+$7.11

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$42

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

41-42 (83)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$39.6

Record

1-225 (226)

qidao001<$100

Over

Invested

$32.02

Value

$22.09

PnL

-$4.34

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 18 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.