Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 34.5

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (61%) · Under at 56¢ · $94K held · ended Nov 10

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 61%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.3K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 18 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares37,341

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Under11 traders

Total Value$26.2K

Total Shares49,316

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over — 39%Under — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$20.3K	$20.3K	-$680.63	52% 287-270 (557)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	-$283.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.5¢	$10.0K	$9.6K	-$397.45
PR primmARB<$100	Overavg 46.4¢	$18.3K	$18.1K	-$891.75	10% 18-162 (180)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.4¢	$14.4K	$13.5K	-$906.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$14.32
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 44.2¢	$14.3K	$9.3K	+$3.4K	57% 104-80 (184)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 61¢	$8.4K	$8.8K	+$479.47	14% 40-241 (281)
TKD44	Underavg 48.9¢	$6.5K	$7.9K	+$471.02	0% 0-69 (69)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 65.6¢	$8.8K	$7.6K	$-1.2K	2% 8-332 (340)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$4.8K	$4.2K	-$199.1	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$46.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$245.19
ET ethanaz	Underavg 50¢	$2.2K	$3.6K	+$1.4K	1% 3-244 (247)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$4.9K	$3.5K	$-1.4K	48% 86-95 (181)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.3¢	$3.9K	$2.1K	$-1.8K
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$998.52	$1.3K	+$341.17
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 48.2¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$457.29	28% 121-308 (429)
CM cm2897	Underavg 50¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$246.88	47% 428-476 (904)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 52.9¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	-$805.08	26% 55-158 (213)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$47.89	49% 427-449 (876)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$607.71	$603.61	-$40.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.2¢	$561.47	$554.11	-$7.37
alpheclabs2	Underavg 48¢	$1.0K	$649.67	+$150.72	46% 49-58 (107)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$519.7	$549.53	+$29.83	53% 214-189 (403)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.1¢	$311.47	$333.76	+$22.29
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$220.46	$215.77	+$7.53
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$225.89	$237.42	+$11.53	22% 84-295 (379)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 50¢	$111	$102.01	-$13.26	26% 127-363 (490)
BI biying88888	Underavg 56¢	$122.08	$91.56	-$22.89	19% 30-131 (161)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Underavg 65.9¢	$127.94	$68.88	-$49.36	0% 1-225 (226)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$41.16	$38.1	-$1.5	75% 18-6 (24)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$22.71	$8.52	-$2.38	33% 108-219 (327)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 19¢	$6.33	$6.88	+$0.55	49% 193-198 (391)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$3.13	+$0.63	28% 130-331 (461)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$2	$2.46	+$0.29	5% 12-213 (225)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$20,316.56

Value

$20.3K

PnL

-$680.63

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Both legs:

Under$10,356.2149.9¢-$283.18

Over$9,960.3550.5¢-$397.45

primmARB<$100

Over

Invested

$18,302.54

Value

$18.1K

PnL

-$891.75

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

Both legs:

Over$14,382.4146.4¢-$906.08

Under$3,920.1348.3¢+$14.32

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$14,279.5

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$8,356.39

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$479.47

Record

14%

40-241 (281)

TKD44

Under

Invested

$6,478.33

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$471.02

Record

0-69 (69)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$8,844.74

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

8-332 (340)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,783.13

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$199.1

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Under$2,854.355.6¢+$46.09

Over$1,431.9649.7¢-$245.19

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$2,227.28

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

3-244 (247)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,918.52

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

Both legs:

Under$3,92065.3¢$-1.8K

Over$998.5248.1¢+$341.17

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,735.91

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$457.29

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$2,767

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$246.88

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,683.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$805.08

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,555.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.89

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Both legs:

Under$607.7149.8¢-$40.52

Over$561.4751.2¢-$7.37

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$1,039.47

Value

$649.67

PnL

+$150.72

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$519.7

Value

$549.53

PnL

+$29.83

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Both legs:

Over$311.4747.1¢+$22.29

Under$220.4650.6¢+$7.53

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$225.89

Value

$237.42

PnL

+$11.53

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$111

Value

$102.01

PnL

-$13.26

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$122.08

Value

$91.56

PnL

-$22.89

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Under

Invested

$127.94

Value

$68.88

PnL

-$49.36

Record

1-225 (226)

qidao001CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.16

Value

$38.1

PnL

-$1.5

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.71

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$2.38

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.29

Record

12-213 (225)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 18 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.