Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Falcons (60%). 5 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
5 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (13%) · Bengals at 41¢ · $549K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Bengals
38
Bengals 13%
1 arb excluded
$549.3K
$-20.4K
48.8¢ → 40.5¢
-17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBengals at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 38 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Falcons 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-TempCTR | Bengalsavg 48.6¢ | $130.6K | $130.3K | -$263.8 | 51% 233-227 (460) |
JU justwinsCTR | Bengalsavg 49¢ | $154.9K | $118.5K | $-36.4K | 49% 180-185 (365) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Falconsavg 53.6¢ | $67.7K | $79.0K | +$11.3K | 53% 6334-5615 (11949) |
 EdZachary | Falconsavg 51.3¢ | $60.9K | $60.6K | -$375.19 | 43% 118-156 (274) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Falconsavg 53¢ | $26.5K | $26.7K | +$250 | 50% 549-553 (1102) |
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Falconsavg 51.7¢ | $25.9K | $25.3K | -$624.85 | 49% 797-827 (1624) |
GL glennyorkshire | Falconsavg 51.1¢ | $11.1K | $13.6K | +$2.5K | 45% 205-249 (454) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Falconsavg 54¢ | $45.96 | $13.2K | +$1.97 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
 nigiri99CTR | Bengalsavg 47¢ | $11.7K | $12.0K | +$325.21 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
PR primm | Falconsavg 60.2¢ | $10.6K | $11.0K | +$401.84 | 47% 1317-1506 (2823) |
BO Bozos14 | Falconsavg 51¢ | $10.4K | $10.5K | +$102.04 | 49% 148-152 (300) |
 VeryLucky888 | Falconsavg 51.7¢ | $12.5K | $9.3K | +$1.8K | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
WO wollao | Falconsavg 54¢ | $7.9K | $7.9K | -$73.57 | 48% 20-22 (42) |
38 38791873984189 | Falconsavg 52¢ | $6.0K | $5.8K | +$617.49 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 RN1 | Falconsavg 63.2¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$61.9 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
AN Anon455 | Falconsavg 56.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$140 | 55% 3814-3145 (6959) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Falconsavg 64¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$62.03 | 50% 4741-4676 (9417) |
HI hi774c | Falconsavg 51¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | +$20.24 | 46% 5332-6170 (11502) |
BA Bagwell306 | Falconsavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$25 | 57% 4284-3214 (7498) |
 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319 | Falconsavg 53¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$16.66 | 55% 3129-2517 (5646) |
 LooksMaxing101 | Falconsavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15 | 51% 888-849 (1737) |
SE sentrio | Falconsavg 51¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.39 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
PL pltrkr111 | Falconsavg 51¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$9.8 | 55% 790-658 (1448) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Falconsavg 51.9¢ | $907.25 | $908 | +$0.75 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
| └ Falcons leg | Falconsavg 51.9¢ | $674.75 | $663 | -$11.75 | |
| └ Bengals leg | Bengalsavg 46.5¢ | $232.5 | $245 | +$12.5 | |
GC GC-P | Falconsavg 52.4¢ | $681.25 | $669.5 | -$11.75 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
Invested
$130,597.77
Value
$130.3K
PnL
-$263.8
Record
51%
233-227 (460)
Invested
$154,887.36
Value
$118.5K
PnL
$-36.4K
Record
49%
180-185 (365)
Invested
$67,688.07
Value
$79.0K
PnL
+$11.3K
Record
53%
6334-5615 (11949)
EdZacharyInvested
$60,942.47
Value
$60.6K
PnL
-$375.19
Record
43%
118-156 (274)
Invested
$26,499.99
Value
$26.7K
PnL
+$250
Record
50%
549-553 (1102)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$25,874.85
Value
$25.3K
PnL
-$624.85
Record
49%
797-827 (1624)
Invested
$11,145.45
Value
$13.6K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
45%
205-249 (454)
Invested
$45.96
Value
$13.2K
PnL
+$1.97
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$11,723.24
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$325.21
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$10,598.24
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$401.84
Record
47%
1317-1506 (2823)
Invested
$10,408.16
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$102.04
Record
49%
148-152 (300)
VeryLucky888Invested
$12,478.25
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$7,945.85
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$73.57
Record
48%
20-22 (42)
Invested
$6,044.41
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$617.49
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
RN1Invested
$5,531.96
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$61.9
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$2,557.87
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$140
Record
55%
3814-3145 (6959)
Invested
$2,692.66
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$62.03
Record
50%
4741-4676 (9417)
Invested
$2,064.55
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$20.24
Record
46%
5332-6170 (11502)
Invested
$2,549.49
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25
Record
57%
4284-3214 (7498)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Invested
$1,766.49
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$16.66
Record
55%
3129-2517 (5646)
LooksMaxing101Invested
$1,530
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
888-849 (1737)
Invested
$1,161.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.39
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.8
Record
55%
790-658 (1448)
Invested
$907.25
Value
$908
PnL
+$0.75
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Both legs:
Invested
$681.25
Value
$669.5
PnL
-$11.75
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Kch-Temp
CTRBengals — $130.3K
justwins
CTRBengals — $118.5K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Falcons — $79.0K
EdZachary
Falcons — $60.6K
0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816
Falcons — $26.7K
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492
Falcons — $25.3K
glennyorkshire
Falcons — $13.6K
HomeRunHazard
Falcons — $13.2K
nigiri99
CTRBengals — $12.0K
primm
Falcons — $11.0K