Browns vs. Saints

10 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (29%) · Saints at 69¢ · $433K held · ends Nov 8

Browns32¢Saints68¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$433.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 68.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

10 of 35 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Browns32%

Saints69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints10 traders

Total Value$305.4K

Total Shares444,340

Combined PnL+$11.5K

Browns25 traders

Total Value$123.5K

Total Shares389,495

Combined PnL$-10.4K

Saints — 29%Browns — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Saintsavg 67.2¢	$182.7K	$186.2K	+$3.5K	87% 80-12 (92)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Saintsavg 63.7¢	$73.4K	$79.0K	+$5.6K	50% 583-574 (1157)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Brownsavg 33¢	$49.5K	$47.3K	$-2.3K	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Saintsavg 64.5¢	$29.7K	$31.5K	+$1.7K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
AN Anon455CTR	Brownsavg 34¢	$20.4K	$18.9K	$-1.5K	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Brownsavg 34.8¢	$17.0K	$15.4K	$-1.6K	49% 507-531 (1038)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Brownsavg 32¢	$12.2K	$12.0K	-$189.96	51% 6914-6531 (13445)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Brownsavg 38.2¢	$13.9K	$11.5K	$-2.4K	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
ST stackingsats	Saintsavg 61¢	$4.5K	$5.0K	+$479.5	47% 364-403 (767)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Brownsavg 33¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$221.24	48% 491-536 (1027)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Brownsavg 39.6¢	$188.21	$4.0K	-$273.51	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Brownsavg 44.9¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$492.21	58% 291-214 (505)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Brownsavg 33¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$102.98	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Brownsavg 39.6¢	$1.0K	$1.9K	-$178.44	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 51¢	$794.05	$1.1K	+$24.06
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 39.6¢	$990	$787.5	-$202.5
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 39.5¢	$8.1K	$1.7K	$-1.0K	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
38 38791873984189CTR	Brownsavg 37¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$246.53	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
HE Herdonia	Saintsavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$195.17	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Brownsavg 37¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$39.39	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 37¢	$785.14	$689.65	-$95.49
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 62¢	$632.35	$688.45	+$56.1
GC GC-PARB<$100	Brownsavg 47¢	$850	$1.2K	-$51.84	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 61.5¢	$615	$675	+$60
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 47¢	$828.75	$573.07	-$111.84
BA bands1	Saintsavg 61¢	$765.57	$784.4	+$18.83	49% 435-448 (883)
SU SunlineTicker	Saintsavg 63¢	$716.31	$710.63	-$5.68	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Saintsavg 68¢	$679.99	$684.99	+$5	53% 1279-1133 (2412)
HI hi774cCTR	Brownsavg 33¢	$624.25	$595.88	-$9.46	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
0xheavy888CTR	Brownsavg 36.4¢	$455	$406.25	-$48.75	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Brownsavg 35¢	$280.91	$253.14	-$27.77	53% 14307-12631 (26938)

999585

Saints

Invested

$182,674.06

Value

$186.2K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

87%

80-12 (92)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Saints

Invested

$73,384.44

Value

$79.0K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Browns

Invested

$49,500

Value

$47.3K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

ferrariChampions2026

Saints

Invested

$29,744.31

Value

$31.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Anon455CTR

Browns

Invested

$20,399.94

Value

$18.9K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Browns

Invested

$17,019.63

Value

$15.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Browns

Invested

$12,157.41

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$189.96

Record

51%

6914-6531 (13445)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Browns

Invested

$13,876.74

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

stackingsats

Saints

Invested

$4,477

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$479.5

Record

47%

364-403 (767)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Browns

Invested

$4,867.17

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$221.24

Record

48%

491-536 (1027)

6512395314597884CTR

Browns

Invested

$188.21

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$273.51

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Browns

Invested

$2,999.69

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$492.21

Record

58%

291-214 (505)

LightParadoxCTR

Browns

Invested

$2,265.52

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$102.98

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

NM-PARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$1,019.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$178.44

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Saints$794.0551¢+$24.06

Browns$99039.6¢-$202.5

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$8,073.73

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

38791873984189CTR

Browns

Invested

$1,776.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$246.53

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Herdonia

Saints

Invested

$1,240.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$195.17

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

sentrioARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$1,417.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$39.39

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Browns$785.1437¢-$95.49

Saints$632.3562¢+$56.1

GC-PARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$850

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$51.84

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Saints$61561.5¢+$60

Browns$828.7547¢-$111.84

bands1

Saints

Invested

$765.57

Value

$784.4

PnL

+$18.83

Record

49%

435-448 (883)

SunlineTicker

Saints

Invested

$716.31

Value

$710.63

PnL

-$5.68

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

TheComboConnoisseur

Saints

Invested

$679.99

Value

$684.99

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1279-1133 (2412)

hi774cCTR

Browns

Invested

$624.25

Value

$595.88

PnL

-$9.46

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

0xheavy888CTR

Browns

Invested

$455

Value

$406.25

PnL

-$48.75

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

BoomLaLaCTR

Browns

Invested

$280.91

Value

$253.14

PnL

-$27.77

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

10 of 35 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.