Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Browns (62%). 11 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Saints (-3.5)

11 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (29%) · Saints at 39¢ · $312K held · ended Nov 8

Saints39¢Browns61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 29%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$312.5K

Combined PnL

$21.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 38.5¢

-26% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

11 of 38 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saints39%

Browns62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints11 traders

Total Value$143.2K

Total Shares252,845

Combined PnL+$13.7K

Browns27 traders

Total Value$148.0K

Total Shares269,730

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Saints — 29%Browns — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-TempCTR	Saintsavg 49.7¢	$54.7K	$63.3K	+$8.6K	52% 244-229 (473)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Brownsavg 46.8¢	$39.1K	$49.1K	+$10.0K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Saintsavg 50¢	$23.4K	$26.9K	+$3.5K	49% 64-67 (131)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Saintsavg 63.7¢	$7.5K	$18.3K	+$653.4	51% 1024-996 (2020)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Saintsavg 52¢	$12.9K	$14.3K	+$1.4K	50% 585-578 (1163)
RN1	Brownsavg 47.1¢	$12.2K	$14.2K	+$1.9K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Brownsavg 45¢	$13.8K	$13.1K	-$768.3	51% 1149-1104 (2253)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Brownsavg 52.3¢	$10.4K	$12.6K	+$2.2K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
GM gmpm2	Brownsavg 51¢	$13.8K	$11.5K	$-2.3K	54% 385-331 (716)
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 49.5¢	$10.8K	$10.1K	-$715.03	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
nigiri99CTR	Saintsavg 55¢	$9.1K	$9.5K	+$412.74	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
PW PwaddlerCTR	Saintsavg 51.7¢	$8.6K	$7.4K	$-1.2K	49% 493-509 (1002)
CUTJALENHURTS	Brownsavg 56.6¢	$7.5K	$6.7K	-$810.97	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Brownsavg 49¢	$5.6K	$6.5K	+$938.62	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 49¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.1K
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$141.38
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Brownsavg 50¢	$7.2K	$6.1K	$-1.1K	49% 808-841 (1649)
PL pleasent242	Brownsavg 48¢	$6.0K	$5.3K	-$687.5	52% 716-665 (1381)
ST stackingsatsARB<$100	Brownsavg 51.7¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$60.51	47% 364-404 (768)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 51.7¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$220.48
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50.7¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$280.99
BI biying88888ARB<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$105.07	48% 233-252 (485)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$498.53
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$393.46
HI hi774c	Brownsavg 45¢	$160.89	$3.9K	-$92.13	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
VeryLucky888	Brownsavg 50.3¢	$5.5K	$3.4K	+$256.71	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Brownsavg 49.5¢	$5.8K	$3.1K	-$78.68	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 49.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$169
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 47.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$90.33
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$327.31	53% 680-594 (1274)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Brownsavg 50¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$450	58% 292-214 (506)
DA darkumbreon88	Brownsavg 46.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$28.82	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
BA Bagwell306	Brownsavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$174.97	48% 4749-5247 (9996)

Kch-TempCTR

Saints

Invested

$54,731.11

Value

$63.3K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

52%

244-229 (473)

ferrariChampions2026

Browns

Invested

$39,114.38

Value

$49.1K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Siddhartha1CTR

Saints

Invested

$23,376.77

Value

$26.9K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Saints

Invested

$7,488.83

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$653.4

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Saints

Invested

$12,945.01

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$12,239.46

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

BoggsFromShawshank

Browns

Invested

$13,829.39

Value

$13.1K

PnL

-$768.3

Record

51%

1149-1104 (2253)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Browns

Invested

$10,370.28

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

gmpm2

Browns

Invested

$13,846.49

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$10,787.49

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$715.03

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

nigiri99CTR

Saints

Invested

$9,079.93

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$412.74

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

PwaddlerCTR

Saints

Invested

$8,634.02

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

CUTJALENHURTS

Browns

Invested

$7,496.74

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$810.97

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

Anon455ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$5,568.26

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$938.62

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Browns$3,92049¢+$1.1K

Saints$1,648.2641¢-$141.38

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Browns

Invested

$7,210.43

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

808-841 (1649)

pleasent242

Browns

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$687.5

Record

52%

716-665 (1381)

stackingsatsARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$5,325.12

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$60.51

Record

47%

364-404 (768)

Both legs:

Browns$3,041.9951.7¢+$220.48

Saints$2,283.1350.7¢-$280.99

biying88888ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$4,244.02

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$105.07

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Both legs:

Saints$2,932.550¢-$498.53

Browns$1,311.5245¢+$393.46

hi774c

Browns

Invested

$160.89

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$92.13

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

VeryLucky888

Browns

Invested

$5,481.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$256.71

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$5,842.54

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$78.68

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Browns$1,954.9549.5¢-$169

Saints$1,141.1747.8¢+$90.33

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Saints

Invested

$2,567.78

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$327.31

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

MAGATheeStallion

Browns

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$450

Record

58%

292-214 (506)

darkumbreon88

Browns

Invested

$2,134.39

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.82

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

Bagwell306

Browns

Invested

$2,299.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$174.97

Record

48%

4749-5247 (9996)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

11 of 38 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.