Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (64%) · Colts at 75¢ · $75K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys26¢Colts74¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$75.3K

Combined PnL

$10.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 74.5¢

+25% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys26%

Colts75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys8 traders

Total Value$35.9K

Total Shares63,765

Combined PnL+$9.0K

Colts14 traders

Total Value$36.3K

Total Shares58,342

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Cowboys — 36%Colts — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrColts 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 42¢	$20.0K	$30.7K	+$10.7K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
BR BreakTheBank	Coltsavg 58¢	$15.2K	$16.7K	+$1.4K	41% 643-941 (1584)
SU SunlineTicker	Coltsavg 68¢	$6.7K	$6.2K	-$442.88	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
IC ic4cream	Coltsavg 58.7¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$256.99	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
VeryLucky888	Coltsavg 57¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$27.66	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Coltsavg 58¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$332.48	55% 3820-3102 (6922)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Cowboysavg 42¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	$-1.0K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1ARB<$100	Coltsavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$216	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 40¢	$960	$1.5K	+$588
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 51¢	$1.2K	$852	-$372
AN Anon455CTR	Cowboysavg 40.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$94.05	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 41.9¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$532.84	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Coltsavg 65.5¢	$598.34	$597.95	-$0.39	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 65.5¢	$397.66	$427.98	+$30.32
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 34.8¢	$200.68	$169.97	-$30.71
UB ubetteruuuu	Coltsavg 60.5¢	$423.5	$444.5	+$21	48% 214-229 (443)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Cowboysavg 37¢	$327.56	$238.65	-$88.92	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Coltsavg 60¢	$240	$142	-$98	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
BI biying88888CTR	Cowboysavg 39¢	$78	$130	+$52	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Coltsavg 80.5¢	$71.65	$63.64	-$8.02	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 46¢	$36.81	$50.01	+$13.2	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Cowboysavg 46.1¢	$107.43	$43.11	-$64.33	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coltsavg 59¢	$52.48	$38.39	+$0.05	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE Venusian<$100	Coltsavg 25¢	$16.28	$24.02	+$7.74	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Coltsavg 55.3¢	$15.21	$15.75	+$0.55	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
GH ghorrock<$100	Coltsavg 83¢	$12.81	$10.45	-$2.36	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
nigiri99<$100	Coltsavg 58.5¢	$4.68	$5.08	+$0.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
LI Limousin<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.78	-$0.63	49% 2142-2260 (4402)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$19,999.53

Value

$30.7K

PnL

+$10.7K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

BreakTheBank

Colts

Invested

$15,217.3

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

SunlineTicker

Colts

Invested

$6,692.55

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$442.88

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

ic4cream

Colts

Invested

$6,036.94

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$256.99

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

VeryLucky888

Colts

Invested

$3,428.6

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$27.66

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

JAMJAMJAM4

Colts

Invested

$2,889.98

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$332.48

Record

55%

3820-3102 (6922)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$3,460.69

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$2,184

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$216

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,265.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$94.05

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,792.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$532.84

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$598.34

Value

$597.95

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Colts$397.6665.5¢+$30.32

Cowboys$200.6834.8¢-$30.71

ubetteruuuu

Colts

Invested

$423.5

Value

$444.5

PnL

+$21

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$327.56

Value

$238.65

PnL

-$88.92

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Colts

Invested

$240

Value

$142

PnL

-$98

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

biying88888CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$78

Value

$130

PnL

+$52

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Colts

Invested

$71.65

Value

$63.64

PnL

-$8.02

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$36.81

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$13.2

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

justaluckydudeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$107.43

Value

$43.11

PnL

-$64.33

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9X<$100

Colts

Invested

$52.48

Value

$38.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Venusian<$100

Colts

Invested

$16.28

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$7.74

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Colts

Invested

$15.21

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

ghorrock<$100

Colts

Invested

$12.81

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$2.36

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

nigiri99<$100

Colts

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Limousin<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.63

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrColts 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.