Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Canadiens, while the market favors Wild (54%). 11 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wild vs. Canadiens

11 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (46%) · Canadiens at 47¢ · $334K held · ended Nov 11

Wild54¢Canadiens46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$334.1K

Combined PnL

-$270.33

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

11 of 24 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wild54%

Canadiens47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens11 traders

Total Value$174.5K

Total Shares375,607

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Wild13 traders

Total Value$158.9K

Total Shares296,402

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Canadiens — 46%Wild — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCanadiens 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCanadiens 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA Sassy-BucketCTR	Canadiensavg 46.9¢	$140.7K	$139.4K	$-1.3K	— 3-7 (10)
S- S-Works	Wildavg 53¢	$63.6K	$64.2K	+$600	65% 508-279 (787)
TA taylorsversion	Wildavg 53¢	$37.1K	$37.4K	+$350	53% 95-83 (178)
ST stackingsats	Wildavg 53¢	$21.2K	$21.4K	+$200	1% 1-179 (180)
nigiri99	Wildavg 54¢	$14.0K	$13.8K	-$122.94	52% 128-119 (247)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$11.3K	$11.0K	-$240	0% 1-582 (583)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$100.14	54% 177-152 (329)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$7.9K	$7.8K	-$83.54	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
HO HomeRunHazard	Wildavg 53¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$52.58	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
AC Ackbar	Wildavg 53¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$50	— 1-5 (6)
AP AppleTiime	Wildavg 53¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$50	50% 191-188 (379)
CO cocococococoCTR	Canadiensavg 46.6¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$44.44	0% 0-30 (30)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Wildavg 53¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$31.45	51% 3678-3503 (7181)
RO royalestakeCTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$0	1% 2-178 (180)
0xheavy888	Wildavg 53¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	56% 119-94 (213)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wildavg 53¢	$790.35	$658.4	+$8.98	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 53¢	$496.08	$500.76	+$7.29
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 46¢	$155.94	$157.64	+$1.7
VeryLucky888CTR	Canadiensavg 45.6¢	$2.6K	$637.51	+$53.86	50% 262-258 (520)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$184	$184	+$0	10% 85-781 (866)
WE westing.v1CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$139.69	$136.72	-$2.97	5% 3-62 (65)
tradecraft<$100	Wildavg 53¢	$95.5	$96.85	+$1.35	17% 124-586 (710)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Wildavg 53¢	$147.3	$60	+$2	49% 440-464 (904)
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 53¢	$31.8	$32.1	+$0.3
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 46.2¢	$27.72	$27.9	+$1.7
KnureKnume<$100	Wildavg 54¢	$50.22	$49.76	-$0.46	1% 1-83 (84)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 46.7¢	$50.08	$49.53	-$0.55	54% 358-310 (668)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 46.1¢	$20.75	$20.93	+$0.18	68% 1593-744 (2337)
PT PT-S7<$100	Wildavg 53¢	$15.9	$16.35	+$0.45	8% 15-165 (180)

Sassy-BucketCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$140,674.47

Value

$139.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

3-7 (10)

S-

S-Works

Wild

Invested

$63,599.97

Value

$64.2K

PnL

+$600

Record

65%

508-279 (787)

taylorsversion

Wild

Invested

$37,099.89

Value

$37.4K

PnL

+$350

Record

53%

95-83 (178)

stackingsats

Wild

Invested

$21,200

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$200

Record

1-179 (180)

nigiri99

Wild

Invested

$13,971.41

Value

$13.8K

PnL

-$122.94

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$11,280

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$240

Record

1-582 (583)

ChonkVisionCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$9,212.84

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$100.14

Record

54%

177-152 (329)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$7,892.41

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$83.54

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

HomeRunHazard

Wild

Invested

$5,567.9

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$52.58

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Ackbar

Wild

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

—

1-5 (6)

AppleTiime

Wild

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

50%

191-188 (379)

cocococococoCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$3,621.85

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$44.44

Record

0-30 (30)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Wild

Invested

$3,294.04

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$31.45

Record

51%

3678-3503 (7181)

royalestakeCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$2,299.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

2-178 (180)

0xheavy888

Wild

Invested

$2,212

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wild

Invested

$790.35

Value

$658.4

PnL

+$8.98

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Wild$496.0853¢+$7.29

Canadiens$155.9446¢+$1.7

VeryLucky888CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$2,603.63

Value

$637.51

PnL

+$53.86

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$184

Value

$184

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

85-781 (866)

westing.v1CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$139.69

Value

$136.72

PnL

-$2.97

Record

3-62 (65)

tradecraft<$100

Wild

Invested

$95.5

Value

$96.85

PnL

+$1.35

Record

17%

124-586 (710)

Pan9XARB<$100

Wild

Invested

$147.3

Value

$60

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Both legs:

Wild$31.853¢+$0.3

Canadiens$27.7246.2¢+$1.7

KnureKnume<$100

Wild

Invested

$50.22

Value

$49.76

PnL

-$0.46

Record

1-83 (84)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$50.08

Value

$49.53

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

358-310 (668)

RLWGCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$20.75

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$0.18

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

PT-S7<$100

Wild

Invested

$15.9

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

15-165 (180)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

11 of 24 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCanadiens 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCanadiens 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.