Predators vs. Ducks

24 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (56%) · Ducks at 55¢ · $219K held · ended Nov 12

Predators46¢Ducks54¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$219.4K

Combined PnL

-$60.25

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

24 of 43 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Predators46%

Ducks55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators19 traders

Total Value$100.0K

Total Shares220,016

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Ducks24 traders

Total Value$118.5K

Total Shares215,271

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Predators — 44%Ducks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPredators 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperPredators 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrPredators 50% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 57% · 40

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR	Predatorsavg 44¢	$87.0K	$89.9K	+$3.0K	49% 115-121 (236)
DO Donkey14	Ducksavg 56¢	$38.2K	$37.2K	$-1.0K	— 4-7 (11)
TA taylorsversion	Ducksavg 56.2¢	$34.9K	$33.8K	$-1.0K	53% 98-86 (184)
BO Bozos14	Ducksavg 56¢	$13.9K	$13.6K	-$274.76	2% 2-123 (125)
AN AnonymousUsername	Ducksavg 56¢	$13.5K	$13.1K	-$360.55	37% 30-51 (81)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274	Ducksavg 60.3¢	$5.4K	$4.9K	-$519.57	21% 29-111 (140)
VeryLucky888	Ducksavg 56¢	$6.3K	$4.0K	-$94.04	52% 597-541 (1138)
RO royalestakeCTR	Predatorsavg 43¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$140	2% 4-184 (188)
BA BabooouCTR	Predatorsavg 43¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$120	— 2-2 (4)
HI hi774c	Ducksavg 56¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$63.3	15% 85-486 (571)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Predatorsavg 39.9¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$275.24	48% 540-590 (1130)
HO HomeRunHazard	Ducksavg 56¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$57.7	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Ducksavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$90	1% 5-497 (502)
nigiri99	Ducksavg 57¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$81.42	52% 235-217 (452)
FaroeseNationalist	Ducksavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$33.33	— 11-6 (17)
GA gagarin59	Ducksavg 56¢	$1.0K	$973.37	-$26.79	43% 35-46 (81)
OM omnibus-076daa	Ducksavg 56.1¢	$893.48	$859.84	-$33.64	42% 286-400 (686)
BA banepir	Ducksavg 56¢	$840	$817.5	-$22.5	— 8-3 (11)
fyrskenCTR	Predatorsavg 44¢	$660	$675	+$15	39% 13-20 (33)
OJ ojgCTR	Predatorsavg 39¢	$351	$409.5	+$58.5	43% 144-188 (332)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Predatorsavg 43.4¢	$348.83	$365.63	+$16.8	16% 158-847 (1005)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Predatorsavg 50¢	$525	$304.86	+$3.56	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Predators leg	Predatorsavg 50¢	$262.5	$238.88	-$23.63
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 50¢	$60.54	$65.98	+$27.18
38 38791873984189	Ducksavg 56.7¢	$876.4	$257.72	+$3.72	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Predatorsavg 41.9¢	$230.65	$239.29	+$8.64	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
└ Predators leg	Predatorsavg 41.9¢	$121.57	$132.13	+$10.56
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 55.5¢	$109.08	$107.16	-$1.92
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283ARB<$100	Predatorsavg 45¢	$289.39	$227.2	-$15.96	24% 20-64 (84)
└ Predators leg	Predatorsavg 45¢	$122.86	$124.23	+$1.37
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 61¢	$115.25	$102.97	-$17.32

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR

Predators

Invested

$86,954.01

Value

$89.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

49%

115-121 (236)

Donkey14

Ducks

Invested

$38,181.81

Value

$37.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

—

4-7 (11)

taylorsversion

Ducks

Invested

$34,855.27

Value

$33.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

98-86 (184)

Bozos14

Ducks

Invested

$13,865.12

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$274.76

Record

2-123 (125)

AnonymousUsername

Ducks

Invested

$13,460.72

Value

$13.1K

PnL

-$360.55

Record

37%

30-51 (81)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274

Ducks

Invested

$5,438.86

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$519.57

Record

21%

29-111 (140)

VeryLucky888

Ducks

Invested

$6,316.74

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$94.04

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

royalestakeCTR

Predators

Invested

$3,010

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$140

Record

4-184 (188)

BabooouCTR

Predators

Invested

$2,580

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$120

Record

—

2-2 (4)

hi774c

Ducks

Invested

$2,363.32

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$63.3

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Predators

Invested

$1,944.16

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$275.24

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

HomeRunHazard

Ducks

Invested

$2,154.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$57.7

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

JAMJAMJAM4

Ducks

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$90

Record

5-497 (502)

nigiri99

Ducks

Invested

$2,182.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$81.42

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

FaroeseNationalist

Ducks

Invested

$1,244.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.33

Record

—

11-6 (17)

gagarin59

Ducks

Invested

$1,000.16

Value

$973.37

PnL

-$26.79

Record

43%

35-46 (81)

omnibus-076daa

Ducks

Invested

$893.48

Value

$859.84

PnL

-$33.64

Record

42%

286-400 (686)

banepir

Ducks

Invested

$840

Value

$817.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

—

8-3 (11)

fyrskenCTR

Predators

Invested

$660

Value

$675

PnL

+$15

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

ojgCTR

Predators

Invested

$351

Value

$409.5

PnL

+$58.5

Record

43%

144-188 (332)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Predators

Invested

$348.83

Value

$365.63

PnL

+$16.8

Record

16%

158-847 (1005)

NotJumpARB<$100

Predators

Invested

$525

Value

$304.86

PnL

+$3.56

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Predators$262.550¢-$23.63

Ducks$60.5450¢+$27.18

38791873984189

Ducks

Invested

$876.4

Value

$257.72

PnL

+$3.72

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Predators

Invested

$230.65

Value

$239.29

PnL

+$8.64

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

Both legs:

Predators$121.5741.9¢+$10.56

Ducks$109.0855.5¢-$1.92

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283ARB<$100

Predators

Invested

$289.39

Value

$227.2

PnL

-$15.96

Record

24%

20-64 (84)

Both legs:

Predators$122.8645¢+$1.37

Ducks$115.2561¢-$17.32

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

24 of 43 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPredators 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperPredators 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrPredators 50% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 57% · 40

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.