Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 9 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5

9 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 27¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 12

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.4K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 26.5¢

-53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 25 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under16 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares48,031

Combined PnL+$11.1K

Over9 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares42,468

Combined PnL$-9.6K

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 68% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 43¢	$8.8K	$13.7K	+$4.9K	48% 550-600 (1150)
DA DaBossHoggCTR	Overavg 57.2¢	$18.5K	$11.0K	$-7.5K	8% 3-34 (37)
RO royalestake	Underavg 46¢	$4.6K	$6.7K	+$2.1K	3% 6-184 (190)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$6.1K	$5.2K	-$846.3	57% 3336-2523 (5859)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$4.5K	$2.7K	$-1.7K
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.1¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$889.34
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 42¢	$2.2K	$3.6K	+$1.3K	37% 193-333 (526)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 54.6¢	$5.0K	$2.8K	$-1.7K	51% 267-256 (523)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 43¢	$1,000	$1.6K	+$558.14	2% 12-520 (532)
0xheavy888	Underavg 42.4¢	$948.99	$1.5K	+$548.92	55% 235-191 (426)
BananaFarmer	Underavg 45¢	$900	$1.3K	+$440	— 5-5 (10)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 43¢	$700.12	$1.0K	+$311.83	47% 385-437 (822)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 45¢	$556.25	$828.19	+$271.94	38% 33-54 (87)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.6¢	$527.89	$611.11	+$83.22	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 55¢	$883.65	$546.26	-$337.39	1% 5-498 (503)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 45¢	$360	$536	+$176	17% 172-867 (1039)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 44.5¢	$793.13	$455.67	+$194.23	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 42¢	$209.98	$334.97	+$124.99	52% 642-600 (1242)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 29.9¢	$280.39	$280.41	+$0.02	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.9¢	$182.93	$177.14	-$5.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$97.45	$103.27	+$5.82
PA Pan9X	Underavg 38.3¢	$108.72	$119.16	+$47.97	47% 847-942 (1789)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$32.42	$49.2	+$16.78	54% 789-676 (1465)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 57.1¢	$75.03	$37.7	-$21.68	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$31.96	$20.12	-$11.84	65% 127-67 (194)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$21.42	$19.64	-$1.79	49% 81-83 (164)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$32.48	$19.04	-$13.44	55% 156-128 (284)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 45¢	$11.3	$16.83	+$5.53	41% 483-698 (1181)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 57.4¢	$6.89	$10.43	+$3.54	36% 446-789 (1235)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$8,824

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

48%

550-600 (1150)

DaBossHoggCTR

Over

Invested

$18,519.78

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

3-34 (37)

royalestake

Under

Invested

$4,600

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

6-184 (190)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,063.58

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$846.3

Record

57%

3336-2523 (5859)

Both legs:

Over$4,461.2155.7¢$-1.7K

Under$1,602.3743.1¢+$889.34

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$2,245.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

37%

193-333 (526)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$5,030.05

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$558.14

Record

12-520 (532)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$948.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$548.92

Record

55%

235-191 (426)

BananaFarmer

Under

Invested

$900

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$440

Record

—

5-5 (10)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$700.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$311.83

Record

47%

385-437 (822)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$556.25

Value

$828.19

PnL

+$271.94

Record

38%

33-54 (87)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$527.89

Value

$611.11

PnL

+$83.22

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$883.65

Value

$546.26

PnL

-$337.39

Record

5-498 (503)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$360

Value

$536

PnL

+$176

Record

17%

172-867 (1039)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$793.13

Value

$455.67

PnL

+$194.23

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$209.98

Value

$334.97

PnL

+$124.99

Record

52%

642-600 (1242)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$280.39

Value

$280.41

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

Both legs:

Over$182.9329.9¢-$5.79

Under$97.4567¢+$5.82

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$108.72

Value

$119.16

PnL

+$47.97

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$32.42

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$16.78

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.03

Value

$37.7

PnL

-$21.68

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.96

Value

$20.12

PnL

-$11.84

Record

65%

127-67 (194)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.42

Value

$19.64

PnL

-$1.79

Record

49%

81-83 (164)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.48

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$13.44

Record

55%

156-128 (284)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$11.3

Value

$16.83

PnL

+$5.53

Record

41%

483-698 (1181)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$6.89

Value

$10.43

PnL

+$3.54

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 25 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 68% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.