Flyers vs. Oilers

15 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (39%) · Oilers at 76¢ · $107K held · ended Nov 12

Flyers25¢Oilers75¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 39%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$107.3K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 75.5¢

+17% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

15 of 38 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Flyers25%

Oilers76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers23 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares107,100

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Oilers15 traders

Total Value$48.4K

Total Shares75,162

Combined PnL-$163.73

Flyers — 61%Oilers — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlyers 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOilers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlyers 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlyers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Flyers 67% · 33

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Flyersavg 35.7¢	$25.7K	$26.6K	+$933.93	52% 128-120 (248)
CH ChonkVision	Oilersavg 64¢	$19.2K	$18.9K	-$300	53% 179-157 (336)
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 64.6¢	$15.8K	$15.4K	-$388.88	— 1-6 (7)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Oilersavg 64¢	$14.6K	$14.6K	+$1.79	—
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 64¢	$9.3K	$9.2K	-$145.47
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 36¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$147.26
PU purplegatto	Oilersavg 64.3¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$686.48	69% 2587-1183 (3770)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Flyersavg 34.4¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	-$847.6	48% 536-588 (1124)
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 75.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$70.77
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 34.4¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$918.37
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flyersavg 34.8¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$263.54	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
DA darkumbreon88	Oilersavg 66¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$164.77	61% 930-595 (1525)
RO royalestake	Oilersavg 64.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$80	2% 3-184 (187)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Flyersavg 34¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$241.8	53% 98-86 (184)
RO roldyCTR	Flyersavg 33¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$240	—
BA banepir	Oilersavg 65¢	$975	$945	-$30	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Flyersavg 33.8¢	$5.3K	$740	+$40	51% 505-476 (981)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oilersavg 64.7¢	$1.2K	$720.14	-$5.62	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 64.7¢	$514.44	$500.85	-$19.37
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 34.7¢	$205.54	$219.29	+$13.75
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Flyersavg 24.6¢	$474.8	$469.18	-$2.02	10% 20-179 (199)
PI PIPIZIN	Oilersavg 64¢	$450.56	$443.52	-$7.04	1% 2-274 (276)
OJ ojgCTR	Flyersavg 24.9¢	$437.9	$431.2	-$6.7	44% 144-187 (331)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Oilersavg 64¢	$325.86	$384.42	+$58.55	—
SE sentrioCTR	Flyersavg 34.9¢	$291.07	$308.36	+$17.29	39% 407-633 (1040)
FL Flaznorp	Oilersavg 72.8¢	$271.52	$271.3	-$0.22	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Flyersavg 33¢	$231	$259	+$28	—
0X 0xfFFF6537	Oilersavg 62.5¢	$188.87	$224.94	+$36.07	25% 22-66 (88)
TO topdogbigboi	Oilersavg 65.2¢	$155.21	$177.37	+$22.16	—
one8tyfiveCTR	Flyersavg 33¢	$157.23	$176.28	+$19.06	—
PA Pan9X	Oilersavg 68.8¢	$266.59	$164.86	+$1.42	49% 698-741 (1439)

nigiri99CTR

Flyers

Invested

$25,700.15

Value

$26.6K

PnL

+$933.93

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

ChonkVision

Oilers

Invested

$19,199.99

Value

$18.9K

PnL

-$300

Record

53%

179-157 (336)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$15,788.59

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$388.88

Record

—

1-6 (7)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Oilers

Invested

$14,611.35

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$1.79

Record

—

Both legs:

Oilers$9,310.0764¢-$145.47

Flyers$5,301.2836¢+$147.26

purplegatto

Oilers

Invested

$3,928.74

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$686.48

Record

69%

2587-1183 (3770)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$5,246.76

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$847.6

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Both legs:

Oilers$2,596.5175.4¢+$70.77

Flyers$2,650.2534.4¢-$918.37

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flyers

Invested

$4,134.55

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$263.54

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

darkumbreon88

Oilers

Invested

$3,624.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$164.77

Record

61%

930-595 (1525)

royalestake

Oilers

Invested

$3,232.7

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$80

Record

3-184 (187)

taylorsversionCTR

Flyers

Invested

$2,740.39

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$241.8

Record

53%

98-86 (184)

roldyCTR

Flyers

Invested

$1,980

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$240

Record

—

banepir

Oilers

Invested

$975

Value

$945

PnL

-$30

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Flyers

Invested

$5,300

Value

$740

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oilers

Invested

$1,163.24

Value

$720.14

PnL

-$5.62

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Both legs:

Oilers$514.4464.7¢-$19.37

Flyers$205.5434.7¢+$13.75

NordhavenCapCTR

Flyers

Invested

$474.8

Value

$469.18

PnL

-$2.02

Record

10%

20-179 (199)

PIPIZIN

Oilers

Invested

$450.56

Value

$443.52

PnL

-$7.04

Record

2-274 (276)

ojgCTR

Flyers

Invested

$437.9

Value

$431.2

PnL

-$6.7

Record

44%

144-187 (331)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Oilers

Invested

$325.86

Value

$384.42

PnL

+$58.55

Record

—

sentrioCTR

Flyers

Invested

$291.07

Value

$308.36

PnL

+$17.29

Record

39%

407-633 (1040)

Flaznorp

Oilers

Invested

$271.52

Value

$271.3

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Flyers

Invested

$231

Value

$259

PnL

+$28

Record

—

0xfFFF6537

Oilers

Invested

$188.87

Value

$224.94

PnL

+$36.07

Record

25%

22-66 (88)

topdogbigboi

Oilers

Invested

$155.21

Value

$177.37

PnL

+$22.16

Record

—

one8tyfiveCTR

Flyers

Invested

$157.23

Value

$176.28

PnL

+$19.06

Record

—

Pan9X

Oilers

Invested

$266.59

Value

$164.86

PnL

+$1.42

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

15 of 38 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlyers 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOilers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlyers 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlyers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Flyers 67% · 33

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.