Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sharks, while the market favors Kings (87%). 9 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sharks vs. Kings

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (45%) · Sharks at 14¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 5

Sharks14¢Kings86¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sharks

Consensus Traders

Sharks 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

-$244.59

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 13.5¢

-65% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSharks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sharks14%

Kings87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sharks9 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares36,309

Combined PnL-$341.13

Kings11 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,141

Combined PnL+$96.54

Sharks — 45%Kings — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (6 on Sharks) disagree here.

whaleSharks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpSharks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKings 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sharks 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Sharksavg 38.8¢	$11.8K	$11.6K	-$177.79	48% 309-334 (643)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Sharksavg 40¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$71.71	71% 7162-2905 (10067)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684	Kingsavg 94.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$16.89	37% 514-861 (1375)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 76.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$84.19	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Kingsavg 62.2¢	$995.03	$960	-$35.03	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
VeryLucky888	Kingsavg 59.7¢	$1.3K	$889.26	+$7.78	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
BI BillBenter2026	Kingsavg 81.3¢	$553.16	$618.01	+$64.85	58% 19129-14138 (33267)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Sharksavg 40¢	$355.2	$346.32	-$8.88	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 60¢	$300	$305	+$5	54% 18061-15195 (33256)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kingsavg 78.9¢	$257.12	$250.57	-$6.55	52% 14269-13042 (27311)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Kingsavg 63.2¢	$256.79	$247.94	-$8.85	51% 1843-1768 (3611)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Sharksavg 18¢	$78.06	$160.06	+$82	47% 11271-12651 (23922)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Sharksavg 40.2¢	$153.35	$148.81	-$4.54	55% 6208-5087 (11295)
0xheavy888	Kingsavg 59¢	$118	$123	+$5	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
CI cigarettesCTR	Sharksavg 28¢	$192.48	$72.18	-$120.3	53% 22918-20103 (43021)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sharksavg 30¢	$120.88	$71.74	-$49.15	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 87.6¢	$43.78	$44.75	+$0.97
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 30¢	$77.1	$26.99	-$50.11
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Kingsavg 93¢	$46.5	$46.25	-$0.25	54% 11957-10377 (22334)
US User7429<$100	Kingsavg 77.9¢	$12.46	$9.76	-$2.7	56% 8993-7188 (16181)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sharksavg 29¢	$43.5	$9.75	-$33.75	57% 12452-9512 (21964)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sharksavg 13¢	$12.2	$6.1	-$6.1	46% 1423-1681 (3104)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sharksavg 40¢	$2.36	$2.3	-$0.06	58% 19680-14468 (34148)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Sharks

Invested

$11,812.98

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$177.79

Record

48%

309-334 (643)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,868.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$71.71

Record

71%

7162-2905 (10067)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684

Kings

Invested

$1,782.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$16.89

Record

37%

514-861 (1375)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$1,194.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$84.19

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

JAMJAMJAM4

Kings

Invested

$995.03

Value

$960

PnL

-$35.03

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

VeryLucky888

Kings

Invested

$1,260.16

Value

$889.26

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

BillBenter2026

Kings

Invested

$553.16

Value

$618.01

PnL

+$64.85

Record

58%

19129-14138 (33267)

HerdoniaCTR

Sharks

Invested

$355.2

Value

$346.32

PnL

-$8.88

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$300

Value

$305

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

18061-15195 (33256)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kings

Invested

$257.12

Value

$250.57

PnL

-$6.55

Record

52%

14269-13042 (27311)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Kings

Invested

$256.79

Value

$247.94

PnL

-$8.85

Record

51%

1843-1768 (3611)

topdogbigboiCTR

Sharks

Invested

$78.06

Value

$160.06

PnL

+$82

Record

47%

11271-12651 (23922)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Sharks

Invested

$153.35

Value

$148.81

PnL

-$4.54

Record

55%

6208-5087 (11295)

0xheavy888

Kings

Invested

$118

Value

$123

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

cigarettesCTR

Sharks

Invested

$192.48

Value

$72.18

PnL

-$120.3

Record

53%

22918-20103 (43021)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Sharks

Invested

$120.88

Value

$71.74

PnL

-$49.15

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

Both legs:

Kings$43.7887.6¢+$0.97

Sharks$77.130¢-$50.11

BoomLaLa<$100

Kings

Invested

$46.5

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

11957-10377 (22334)

User7429<$100

Kings

Invested

$12.46

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$2.7

Record

56%

8993-7188 (16181)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$43.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$33.75

Record

57%

12452-9512 (21964)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$12.2

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$6.1

Record

46%

1423-1681 (3104)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

Research grade

AvoidSharks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (6 on Sharks) disagree here.

whaleSharks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpSharks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKings 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sharks 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sharks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.