Utah vs. Golden Knights

22 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (59%) · Golden Knights at 53¢ · $251K held · ended Nov 12

Utah48¢Golden Knights52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Golden Knights

Consensus Traders

Golden Knights 59%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$250.6K

Combined PnL

$8.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

22 of 37 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah48%

Golden Knights53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah15 traders

Total Value$114.6K

Total Shares245,309

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Golden Knights22 traders

Total Value$128.0K

Total Shares226,183

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Utah — 41%Golden Knights — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Golden Knights 62% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR	Utahavg 44.8¢	$90.0K	$95.3K	+$5.3K	49% 115-121 (236)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Golden Knightsavg 55.1¢	$35.2K	$33.5K	$-1.7K	48% 536-588 (1124)
CH ChonkVision	Golden Knightsavg 53¢	$15.9K	$17.1K	+$1.2K	53% 179-157 (336)
HO HomeRunHazard	Golden Knightsavg 55¢	$14.9K	$15.4K	+$525.28	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Utahavg 46¢	$16.4K	$15.3K	$-1.1K	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Golden Knightsavg 54¢	$14.3K	$14.7K	+$401.11	53% 1860-1677 (3537)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Golden Knightsavg 55¢	$12.7K	$13.2K	+$461.6	48% 184-199 (383)
0xheavy888	Golden Knightsavg 55¢	$11.0K	$11.4K	+$400	55% 205-165 (370)
IM imjustkenisghey	Golden Knightsavg 55¢	$8.4K	$8.7K	+$304.54	54% 15-13 (28)
RO royalestake	Golden Knightsavg 54.4¢	$6.7K	$8.3K	+$1.6K	2% 3-184 (187)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 54¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$31.03	52% 128-120 (248)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$191.01
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 46¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$222.04
RO roldy	Golden Knightsavg 53.1¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$207.9	—
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 52.4¢	$857.19	$787.5	-$5.32	—
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 52.4¢	$537.5	$538.13	+$0.63
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 48.5¢	$254.65	$249.38	-$5.94
fyrsken	Golden Knightsavg 55.5¢	$975.25	$717.42	+$17.17	—
OJ ojgCTR	Utahavg 45¢	$882.13	$648	-$234.13	44% 144-187 (331)
CI cigarettes	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$490	$545	+$55	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Utahavg 42¢	$526.74	$539.29	+$12.54	4% 4-88 (92)
38 38791873984189CTR	Utahavg 46.1¢	$1.3K	$513.83	+$69.4	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
alpheclabs2	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$420.42	$467.61	+$47.19	43% 126-165 (291)
PI PIPIZIN	Golden Knightsavg 55¢	$451	$467.4	+$16.4	1% 2-274 (276)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Utahavg 37¢	$304.1	$390.61	+$86.51	31% 423-938 (1361)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 60.4¢	$365.34	$350.35	-$14.99	56% 3876-3037 (6913)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 60.4¢	$209.14	$181.83	-$27.31
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 44¢	$156.2	$168.52	+$12.32
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Utahavg 46¢	$367.99	$343.99	-$24	15% 153-845 (998)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Utahavg 45¢	$280	$295.56	+$15.56	15% 57-313 (370)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Utahavg 32.4¢	$183.93	$269.66	+$85.73	29% 180-434 (614)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR

Utah

Invested

$90,013.35

Value

$95.3K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

49%

115-121 (236)

Multicoloured-Serf

Golden Knights

Invested

$35,163.63

Value

$33.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

ChonkVision

Golden Knights

Invested

$15,900

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

179-157 (336)

HomeRunHazard

Golden Knights

Invested

$14,896.34

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$525.28

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

chubbytoroCTR

Utah

Invested

$16,415.13

Value

$15.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Golden Knights

Invested

$14,252.86

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$401.11

Record

53%

1860-1677 (3537)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Golden Knights

Invested

$12,694

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$461.6

Record

48%

184-199 (383)

0xheavy888

Golden Knights

Invested

$11,000

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$400

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

imjustkenisghey

Golden Knights

Invested

$8,374.85

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$304.54

Record

54%

15-13 (28)

royalestake

Golden Knights

Invested

$6,691.99

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

3-184 (187)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$6,841.36

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$31.03

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$3,438.1854¢+$191.01

Utah$3,403.1846¢-$222.04

roldy

Golden Knights

Invested

$2,792.11

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$207.9

Record

—

NotJumpARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$857.19

Value

$787.5

PnL

-$5.32

Record

—

Both legs:

Golden Knights$537.552.4¢+$0.63

Utah$254.6548.5¢-$5.94

fyrsken

Golden Knights

Invested

$975.25

Value

$717.42

PnL

+$17.17

Record

—

ojgCTR

Utah

Invested

$882.13

Value

$648

PnL

-$234.13

Record

44%

144-187 (331)

cigarettes

Golden Knights

Invested

$490

Value

$545

PnL

+$55

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

Bagwell306CTR

Utah

Invested

$526.74

Value

$539.29

PnL

+$12.54

Record

4-88 (92)

38791873984189CTR

Utah

Invested

$1,252.84

Value

$513.83

PnL

+$69.4

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

alpheclabs2

Golden Knights

Invested

$420.42

Value

$467.61

PnL

+$47.19

Record

43%

126-165 (291)

PIPIZIN

Golden Knights

Invested

$451

Value

$467.4

PnL

+$16.4

Record

2-274 (276)

LightParadoxCTR

Utah

Invested

$304.1

Value

$390.61

PnL

+$86.51

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$365.34

Value

$350.35

PnL

-$14.99

Record

56%

3876-3037 (6913)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$209.1460.4¢-$27.31

Utah$156.244¢+$12.32

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Utah

Invested

$367.99

Value

$343.99

PnL

-$24

Record

15%

153-845 (998)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Utah

Invested

$280

Value

$295.56

PnL

+$15.56

Record

15%

57-313 (370)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Utah

Invested

$183.93

Value

$269.66

PnL

+$85.73

Record

29%

180-434 (614)

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

22 of 37 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUtah 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Golden Knights 62% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Golden Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.