Utah vs. Canadiens

13 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (38%) · Utah at 53¢ · $227K held · ended Nov 6

Utah53¢Canadiens47¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$227.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

13 of 34 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah53%

Canadiens48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah13 traders

Total Value$126.6K

Total Shares238,125

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Canadiens21 traders

Total Value$93.3K

Total Shares215,803

Combined PnL-$510.73

Utah — 38%Canadiens — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Utahavg 54.2¢	$115.7K	$113.1K	$-2.7K	48% 281-310 (591)
G5 g56gz56guzn547nu76CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$32.9K	$32.9K	-$0.48	55% 233-193 (426)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Canadiensavg 48.9¢	$27.9K	$26.8K	-$663.28	42% 8009-11197 (19206)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Canadiensavg 47.2¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	-$48.4	51% 983-934 (1917)
RO royalestakeCTR	Canadiensavg 46.7¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$60.46	47% 407-458 (865)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Utahavg 53¢	$8.5K	$8.5K	-$1.39	53% 6264-5545 (11809)
nigiri99CTR	Canadiensavg 49.1¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	+$49.03	46% 8595-10246 (18841)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Canadiensavg 46.3¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$55.74	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 46.3¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$37.2
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 52¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.55
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Canadiensavg 46.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$30.44	58% 46718-33677 (80395)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 46.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20.44
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Canadiensavg 46.1¢	$16.6K	$2.1K	+$144.52	69% 7209-3191 (10400)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Canadiensavg 49.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$89.92	57% 4270-3197 (7467)
0xheavy888	Utahavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.05	56% 7922-6326 (14248)
ST stackingsats	Utahavg 53¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.33	48% 354-383 (737)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Canadiensavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$31.8	50% 452-444 (896)
SE sentrioCTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.49	50% 25837-25546 (51383)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Utahavg 73.9¢	$728.44	$793.01	+$64.57	48% 347-378 (725)
CO cocococococoCTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$522.17	$527.73	+$5.56	52% 1740-1584 (3324)
38 38791873984189CTR	Canadiensavg 43.5¢	$1.3K	$455.55	+$46.03	48% 61202-65999 (127201)
VI vibing123CTR	Canadiensavg 49.2¢	$395.95	$377.88	-$18.07	51% 1630-1540 (3170)
BI BillBenter2026	Utahavg 69.2¢	$299.02	$341.28	+$42.26	57% 19347-14320 (33667)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Utahavg 65.2¢	$305.4	$292.97	-$12.43	54% 3467-3006 (6473)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$282	$282	+$0	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
FL Flaznorp	Utahavg 53.7¢	$254.85	$253.88	-$0.97	51% 25776-24479 (50255)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Utahavg 68.4¢	$225.46	$218.54	-$6.92	52% 14506-13188 (27694)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 37.2¢	$90.31	$112.84	+$22.54
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 68.4¢	$135.15	$105.69	-$29.46
HE HerdoniaCTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$201.79	$201.79	-$0	51% 3806-3729 (7535)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Utah

Invested

$115,739.23

Value

$113.1K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

48%

281-310 (591)

g56gz56guzn547nu76CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$32,900.96

Value

$32.9K

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

233-193 (426)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$27,916.26

Value

$26.8K

PnL

-$663.28

Record

42%

8009-11197 (19206)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$9,448.4

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$48.4

Record

51%

983-934 (1917)

royalestakeCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$8,893.98

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$60.46

Record

47%

407-458 (865)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Utah

Invested

$8,545

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$1.39

Record

53%

6264-5545 (11809)

nigiri99CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$6,439.59

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$49.03

Record

46%

8595-10246 (18841)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$4,253.48

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$55.74

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

Both legs:

Canadiens$2,324.4746.3¢+$37.2

Utah$1,92952¢+$18.55

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$2,909.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$30.44

Record

58%

46718-33677 (80395)

Both legs:

Canadiens$1,869.9746.5¢+$20.44

Utah$1,04052¢+$10

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$16,556.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$144.52

Record

69%

7209-3191 (10400)

Bagwell306CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$1,969.92

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$89.92

Record

57%

4270-3197 (7467)

0xheavy888

Utah

Invested

$1,669.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.05

Record

56%

7922-6326 (14248)

stackingsats

Utah

Invested

$1,518.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.33

Record

48%

354-383 (737)

PIPIZINCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$1,532.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$31.8

Record

50%

452-444 (896)

sentrioCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$1,362.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.49

Record

50%

25837-25546 (51383)

Multicoloured-Serf

Utah

Invested

$728.44

Value

$793.01

PnL

+$64.57

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

cocococococoCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$522.17

Value

$527.73

PnL

+$5.56

Record

52%

1740-1584 (3324)

38791873984189CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$1,319.56

Value

$455.55

PnL

+$46.03

Record

48%

61202-65999 (127201)

vibing123CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$395.95

Value

$377.88

PnL

-$18.07

Record

51%

1630-1540 (3170)

BillBenter2026

Utah

Invested

$299.02

Value

$341.28

PnL

+$42.26

Record

57%

19347-14320 (33667)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Utah

Invested

$305.4

Value

$292.97

PnL

-$12.43

Record

54%

3467-3006 (6473)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$282

Value

$282

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

Flaznorp

Utah

Invested

$254.85

Value

$253.88

PnL

-$0.97

Record

51%

25776-24479 (50255)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$225.46

Value

$218.54

PnL

-$6.92

Record

52%

14506-13188 (27694)

Both legs:

Canadiens$90.3137.2¢+$22.54

Utah$135.1568.4¢-$29.46

HerdoniaCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$201.79

Value

$201.79

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Utah

13 of 34 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.