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5 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (23%) · No at 76¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 31

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 23%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 76¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares16,917

Combined PnL+$3.7K

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,989

Combined PnL+$907.41

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 76% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$98.06	$1.3K	+$1.2K	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 78.9¢	$947.93	$1.0K	+$954.93	43% 17-23 (40)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$81.48	$1.0K	+$921.95	56% 49-38 (87)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$34.62	$462.09	+$427.47	— 4-3 (7)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$30.22	$372.5	+$340.26	39% 179-277 (456)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$31.73	$371.65	+$339.91	0% 0-122 (122)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.7¢	$249.23	$229	-$20.22	69% 48-22 (70)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 83.8¢	$200.41	$196.61	-$3.81	— 0-1 (1)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$18.05	$192.57	+$174.52	— 2-0 (2)
CosmicCedar	Noavg 89.4¢	$158.83	$135.31	-$23.53	0% 0-48 (48)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$51.14	$69.6	+$18.46	— 0-1 (1)
CU curieCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$5.68	$66.57	+$60.89	0% 0-98 (98)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.92	$63.34	+$59.42	— 1-0 (1)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$57.63	$57.68	+$0.04	— 7-1 (8)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.25	$57.66	+$51.41	53% 87-77 (164)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.86	$33.53	+$30.66	—
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.68	$19.65	+$17.97	0% 0-129 (129)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.72	$8.86	+$8.14	—
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.19	$8.37	+$7.18	0% 0-70 (70)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.41	$2.63	+$2.22	77% 57-17 (74)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.09	$1.35	+$1.26	84% 21-4 (25)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.06	$0.74	+$0.68	2% 3-147 (150)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$98.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$947.93

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$954.93

Record

43%

17-23 (40)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$81.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$921.95

Record

56%

49-38 (87)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$34.62

Value

$462.09

PnL

+$427.47

Record

—

4-3 (7)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$30.22

Value

$372.5

PnL

+$340.26

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$31.73

Value

$371.65

PnL

+$339.91

Record

0-122 (122)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$249.23

Value

$229

PnL

-$20.22

Record

69%

48-22 (70)

WarriorH

Invested

$200.41

Value

$196.61

PnL

-$3.81

Record

—

0-1 (1)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$18.05

Value

$192.57

PnL

+$174.52

Record

—

2-0 (2)

CosmicCedar

Invested

$158.83

Value

$135.31

PnL

-$23.53

Record

0-48 (48)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.14

Value

$69.6

PnL

+$18.46

Record

—

0-1 (1)

curieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$66.57

PnL

+$60.89

Record

0-98 (98)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.92

Value

$63.34

PnL

+$59.42

Record

—

1-0 (1)

merod<$100

Invested

$57.63

Value

$57.68

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

7-1 (8)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

$57.66

PnL

+$51.41

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$30.66

Record

—

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$19.65

PnL

+$17.97

Record

0-129 (129)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$8.86

PnL

+$8.14

Record

—

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$8.37

PnL

+$7.18

Record

0-70 (70)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$2.22

Record

77%

57-17 (74)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$1.26

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.68

Record

3-147 (150)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 76% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.