Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 97¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 7

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

$110.37

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 96.6¢

+37% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares20,330

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$804.56

Total Shares22,664

Combined PnL$-5.4K

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$6.9K	$8.4K	+$1.5K	52% 173-159 (332)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 66.8¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$959.71	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
DI dips.	Noavg 84.9¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$293.5	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 2.2¢	$61.47	$2.4K	+$2.5K	41% 1179-1673 (2852)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$72.61	60% 911-595 (1506)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$5.0K	$690.96	$-4.4K	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94.5¢	$572.73	$583.99	+$11.26	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$42.54	$89.32	+$46.79	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
ME merod	Noavg 87.3¢	$159.69	$74.96	+$6.89	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 71.8¢	$268.48	$73.94	+$16.99	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 78.1¢	$172.94	$63.3	+$10.85	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 69¢	$356.34	$63.2	+$15.69	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 71.6¢	$215.65	$61.31	+$15.87	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 72.9¢	$200.89	$53.58	+$11.28	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$670.29	$51.82	-$618.46	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 23.8¢	$343.33	$51.26	-$280.93	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$41.66	$37.66	+$0.78	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 71.4¢	$147.8	$27.08	+$7	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 67.4¢	$220.84	$17.59	+$5.33	40% 1032-1567 (2599)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$69.7	$13.86	-$0.05	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$39.25	$10.52	-$28.73	20% 2580-10222 (12802)

roscoff

Invested

$6,871.46

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,156.27

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$959.71

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

dips.

Invested

$2,412.38

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$293.5

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$61.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

41%

1179-1673 (2852)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$1,910.34

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$72.61

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,007.01

Value

$690.96

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

cigarettes

Invested

$572.73

Value

$583.99

PnL

+$11.26

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$42.54

Value

$89.32

PnL

+$46.79

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

merod

Invested

$159.69

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$6.89

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$268.48

Value

$73.94

PnL

+$16.99

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$172.94

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$10.85

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$356.34

Value

$63.2

PnL

+$15.69

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$215.65

Value

$61.31

PnL

+$15.87

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$200.89

Value

$53.58

PnL

+$11.28

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$670.29

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$618.46

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$343.33

Value

$51.26

PnL

-$280.93

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$41.66

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$0.78

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$147.8

Value

$27.08

PnL

+$7

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$220.84

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$5.33

Record

40%

1032-1567 (2599)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$69.7

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.25

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$28.73

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.