Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 6

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 97.8¢

+68% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,433

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$142.54

Total Shares8,129

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 14.3¢	$364.5	$2.5K	+$2.1K	39% 1054-1655 (2709)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 82.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$157.18	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 79.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$208.25	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$510.1	$629.34	+$109.99	52% 173-159 (332)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 93.4¢	$563.5	$595.2	+$22.96	60% 911-595 (1506)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 71.2¢	$354.15	$485.98	+$131.83	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
ME merod	Noavg 71.7¢	$275.11	$310.35	+$85.47	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 84.2¢	$175.3	$103	+$13.17	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$999.94	$54.37	-$909.88	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 76.9¢	$139.96	$46.44	+$10.24	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$449.12	$40.75	-$367.05	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 73.6¢	$126.49	$34.7	+$8.57	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 74.8¢	$129.62	$33.27	+$7.5	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$31.03	$24.14	-$6.89	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$219.18	$11.71	-$207.47	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$98.74	$11.58	-$87.15	63% 712-413 (1125)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$11.21	$11.23	+$0.03	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 71.8¢	$113.84	$5.87	+$1.5	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 70.6¢	$152.59	$5.06	+$0.13	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 71.2¢	$154.24	$4.97	+$1.31	40% 2175-3220 (5395)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$364.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,374.85

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$157.18

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,012.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$208.25

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

roscoff

Invested

$510.1

Value

$629.34

PnL

+$109.99

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$563.5

Value

$595.2

PnL

+$22.96

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

cigarettes

Invested

$354.15

Value

$485.98

PnL

+$131.83

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

merod

Invested

$275.11

Value

$310.35

PnL

+$85.47

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$175.3

Value

$103

PnL

+$13.17

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$999.94

Value

$54.37

PnL

-$909.88

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$139.96

Value

$46.44

PnL

+$10.24

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$449.12

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$367.05

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$126.49

Value

$34.7

PnL

+$8.57

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$129.62

Value

$33.27

PnL

+$7.5

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.03

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$6.89

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$219.18

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$207.47

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.74

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$87.15

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$113.84

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$152.59

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$154.24

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$1.31

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.