Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$4.7K

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 98.4¢

+35% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,442

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$44.09

Total Shares8,211

Combined PnL-$839.8

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 89.3¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$355.48	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 9.2¢	$580.24	$2.9K	+$4.6K	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.6K	$2.6K	+$88.74	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.8¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	+$91.32	60% 911-595 (1506)
DI dips.	Noavg 85.9¢	$2.9K	$426.71	+$460.89	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 95.7¢	$672.47	$259.35	+$10.41	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 89.3¢	$671.63	$236.07	+$24.52	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
ME merod	Noavg 97.9¢	$193.72	$170.48	+$2.86	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 92.9¢	$599.69	$141.68	+$9.7	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94¢	$618.82	$133.88	+$7.62	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 62.5¢	$810.83	$120.85	-$156.73	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
KO korda77	Noavg 94.2¢	$291.16	$91.72	+$5.15	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 95.9¢	$501.78	$77.29	+$2.97	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 95.7¢	$374.69	$40.1	+$1.62	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$181.01	$16.25	-$164.76	63% 712-413 (1125)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$227.25	$11.58	-$215.68	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$582.93	$6.95	-$290.61	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$15.32	$4.47	-$10.85	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$161.72	$3.83	-$157.89	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$1.01	$1.01	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,759.04

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$355.48

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$580.24

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$4,570.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$88.74

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$2,297.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$91.32

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

dips.

Invested

$2,867.31

Value

$426.71

PnL

+$460.89

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$672.47

Value

$259.35

PnL

+$10.41

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$671.63

Value

$236.07

PnL

+$24.52

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

merod

Invested

$193.72

Value

$170.48

PnL

+$2.86

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$599.69

Value

$141.68

PnL

+$9.7

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$618.82

Value

$133.88

PnL

+$7.62

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

e46m3

Invested

$810.83

Value

$120.85

PnL

-$156.73

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

korda77

Invested

$291.16

Value

$91.72

PnL

+$5.15

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$501.78

Value

$77.29

PnL

+$2.97

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$374.69

Value

$40.1

PnL

+$1.62

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$164.76

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$227.25

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$215.68

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$582.93

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$290.61

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.32

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$10.85

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$161.72

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$157.89

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.