Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$5.0K

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 99.5¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares23,141

Combined PnL+$5.1K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$172.52

Total Shares6,192

Combined PnL-$85.2

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.2¢	$12.2K	$8.6K	-$6.71	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 17.4¢	$1.4K	$4.9K	+$5.3K	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.2¢	$3.7K	$3.2K	-$193.92	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$7.3	72% 13988-5402 (19390)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.3¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$4.5	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.1¢	$1.0K	$515.49	+$5.83	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 97.3¢	$1.4K	$386.19	+$6.27	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 98.8¢	$842.42	$370.48	+$0.4	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 98.7¢	$602.95	$349.51	+$0.72	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
morito181	Noavg 97.1¢	$223	$221.66	+$5.13	61% 862-554 (1416)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 66.2¢	$172.84	$197.84	+$42.39	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
ME merod	Noavg 99.8¢	$406.8	$141.5	-$1.2	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$187.81	$138.01	-$49.8	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
└ No leg	Noavg 92.5¢	$92.5	$98.9	+$6.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.6¢	$95.31	$39.11	-$56.2
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 94.8¢	$99.61	$103.87	+$4.31	61% 913-595 (1508)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.1K	$78.37	+$0.91	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$93.94	$72.95	-$84.35	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$91.48	$47.74	+$9.86	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$8.17	$32.4	+$24.23	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$20.64	$13.55	-$16.12	49% 6216-6354 (12570)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$19.1	$5.16	-$17.09	49% 255-269 (524)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.13	$0.72	-$1.72	50% 20843-21072 (41915)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$12,215.61

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$6.71

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$1,381.64

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

cigarettes

Invested

$3,695.37

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$193.92

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

e46m3

Invested

$2,386.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$7.3

Record

72%

13988-5402 (19390)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,368.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$4.5

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$1,016.48

Value

$515.49

PnL

+$5.83

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$1,424.85

Value

$386.19

PnL

+$6.27

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$842.42

Value

$370.48

PnL

+$0.4

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$602.95

Value

$349.51

PnL

+$0.72

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

morito181

Invested

$223

Value

$221.66

PnL

+$5.13

Record

61%

862-554 (1416)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$172.84

Value

$197.84

PnL

+$42.39

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

merod

Invested

$406.8

Value

$141.5

PnL

-$1.2

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$187.81

Value

$138.01

PnL

-$49.8

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Both legs:

No$92.592.5¢+$6.4

Yes$95.316.6¢-$56.2

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$99.61

Value

$103.87

PnL

+$4.31

Record

61%

913-595 (1508)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$1,078.07

Value

$78.37

PnL

+$0.91

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.94

Value

$72.95

PnL

-$84.35

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.48

Value

$47.74

PnL

+$9.86

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$24.23

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.64

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$16.12

Record

49%

6216-6354 (12570)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.1

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$17.09

Record

49%

255-269 (524)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$1.72

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.