Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-11-04?

25 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 85¢ · $104K held · ended Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.9K

Combined PnL

-$907.15

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 84.5¢

+3% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 85%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No25 traders

Total Value$90.6K

Total Shares106,587

Combined PnL-$235.39

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares29,189

Combined PnL-$671.76

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81.6¢	$25.3K	$25.7K	+$418.1	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
CA Cannae	Noavg 82¢	$10.1K	$9.9K	-$246.56	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.1¢	$9.5K	$9.6K	+$137.03	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
RN1	Noavg 83.9¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$34.6	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
VE Venusian	Noavg 80.8¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$59.98	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
LI Limousin	Noavg 80.9¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$40.13	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 83.7¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$223.22	65% 322-173 (495)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 85.6¢	$5.1K	$4.8K	-$332.81	56% 6179-4951 (11130)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 84¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$22.5	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$36.86	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$23.31
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.55
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 79¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$30	67% 2738-1320 (4058)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$14.7K	$2.3K	+$578.11	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$441.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.6¢	$492.34	$629.28	+$136.94
38 38791873984189	Noavg 81.2¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$19.71	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$186.37	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.9¢	$896.12	$1.1K	+$205.48
└ No leg	Noavg 82.1¢	$982.25	$963.14	-$19.11
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$12.1	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 85¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$60.89	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$422.32	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 17.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$76.3	37% 510-855 (1365)
WO WoohxCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1,000	-$0	56% 113-88 (201)
GC GC-P	Noavg 79¢	$1.7K	$990.02	+$14.36	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
0X 0xE699F5ceb43bd659909e4Ae8047d0d14a0CA8Dc2-1768415917057CTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$1.0K	$965.8	-$75.66	25% 30-92 (122)
NM NM-P	Noavg 79¢	$949.29	$960.39	+$11.09	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 80¢	$589.57	$615.88	+$26.31	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 80.9¢	$584.89	$578.52	-$6.37	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 80.9¢	$519.36	$513.32	-$6.04	52% 1149-1045 (2194)

Flaznorp

Invested

$25,278.59

Value

$25.7K

PnL

+$418.1

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Cannae

Invested

$10,140.5

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$246.56

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$9,465.98

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$137.03

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

RN1

Invested

$7,685.3

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$34.6

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Venusian

Invested

$6,252.3

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$59.98

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

Limousin

Invested

$5,227.09

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$40.13

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,042.5

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$223.22

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$5,092.72

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$332.81

Record

56%

6179-4951 (11130)

e46m3

Invested

$3,779.5

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,456.43

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$36.86

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

Both legs:

Yes$2,385.8919.8¢+$23.31

No$1,070.5479¢+$13.55

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$30

Record

67%

2738-1320 (4058)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$14,682.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$578.11

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

Both legs:

No$1,690.5680.8¢+$441.16

Yes$492.3415.6¢+$136.94

38791873984189

Invested

$2,709.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$19.71

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,878.38

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$186.37

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

Both legs:

Yes$896.1215.9¢+$205.48

No$982.2582.1¢-$19.11

cigarettes

Invested

$2,066.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$12.1

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

Gaditima

Invested

$1,939.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$60.89

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,970.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$422.32

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,477.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$76.3

Record

37%

510-855 (1365)

WoohxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

113-88 (201)

GC-P

Invested

$1,716.99

Value

$990.02

PnL

+$14.36

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

0xE699F5ceb43bd659909e4Ae8047d0d14a0CA8Dc2-1768415917057CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,041.46

Value

$965.8

PnL

-$75.66

Record

25%

30-92 (122)

NM-P

Invested

$949.29

Value

$960.39

PnL

+$11.09

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

SnakeBall

Invested

$589.57

Value

$615.88

PnL

+$26.31

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

MadridTime

Invested

$584.89

Value

$578.52

PnL

-$6.37

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

LightParadox

Invested

$519.36

Value

$513.32

PnL

-$6.04

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 85%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.