Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Liverpool FC, while the market favors Fenerbahçe SK (62%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (47%) · Liverpool FC at 38¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 4

Liverpool FC38¢Fenerbahçe SK62¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liverpool FC

Consensus Traders

Liverpool FC 47%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.8K

Combined PnL

-$795.2

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 38¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Fenerbahçe SK 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liverpool FC38%

Fenerbahçe SK62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liverpool FC7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares18,237

Combined PnL-$677.32

Fenerbahçe SK8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,695

Combined PnL-$117.88

Liverpool FC — 47%Fenerbahçe SK — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-43 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Fenerbahçe SK) and the top 1000 (14 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleFenerbahçe SK 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrLiverpool FC 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 57¢	$18.4K	$18.4K	+$9.12	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 57¢	$11.9K	$12.7K	+$843.5
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 43.5¢	$6.6K	$5.7K	-$834.38
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.3¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$97.27	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.3¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$349.27
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 42¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$252
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 43.3¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$212.53	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 58.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$114.97
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 43.3¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$327.5
LU LuckyLooCTR	Liverpool FCavg 42¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$421.04	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
Reformedx	Fenerbahçe SKavg 62.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$47.58	51% 860-825 (1685)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 45.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$178.4	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 45.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$223.83
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.6¢	$466.09	$511.52	+$45.43
JE jeremyclarCTR	Liverpool FCavg 41¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$99.28	44% 47-61 (108)
DV dv-pm	Fenerbahçe SKavg 57.2¢	$963.11	$1.0K	-$8.41	49% 3294-3423 (6717)
HI hi774cCTR	Liverpool FCavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$107.5	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
VeryLucky888	Fenerbahçe SKavg 58.8¢	$2.6K	$786.08	-$90.68	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 42¢	$550.86	$546.47	-$4.4	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 42¢	$305.35	$276.44	-$28.91
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.5¢	$245.51	$270.02	+$24.51
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 44.5¢	$532.25	$413.73	-$41.24	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 44.5¢	$346.89	$296	-$50.89
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$108.08	$117.73	+$9.65
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Liverpool FCavg 38¢	$379.99	$379.99	+$0	45% 109-135 (244)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 61¢	$506.38	$265.43	-$9.47	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 61¢	$186.9	$188.43	+$1.53
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 44¢	$88	$77	-$11
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$224	$244	+$20	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
nigiri99CTR	Liverpool FCavg 45.2¢	$238.82	$200.64	-$38.18	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
HRTrading	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.5¢	$115.51	$124.66	+$9.15	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Liverpool FCavg 42.8¢	$97.72	$86.86	-$10.86	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
GH ghorrock	Fenerbahçe SKavg 57.4¢	$129.17	$63.7	-$1.74	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$19.16	$20.87	+$1.71	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55¢	$4.95	$4.95	-$0.32	52% 8584-7828 (16412)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Liverpool FCavg 45¢	$3	$2.53	-$0.47	47% 11082-12418 (23500)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$18,417.57

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$9.12

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$11,863.8257¢+$843.5

Liverpool FC$6,553.7543.5¢-$834.38

FlaznorpARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$6,824.87

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$97.27

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$4,178.8756.3¢+$349.27

Liverpool FC$2,64642¢-$252

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$5,123.91

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$212.53

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$2,468.2458.3¢+$114.97

Liverpool FC$2,655.6743.3¢-$327.5

LuckyLooCTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$4,420.92

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$421.04

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Reformedx

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$2,487.58

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$47.58

Record

51%

860-825 (1685)

sentrioARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$1,817.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$178.4

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$1,351.2945.5¢-$223.83

Fenerbahçe SK$466.0955.6¢+$45.43

jeremyclarCTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$1,355.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$99.28

Record

44%

47-61 (108)

dv-pm

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$963.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$8.41

Record

49%

3294-3423 (6717)

hi774cCTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$1,128.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$107.5

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

VeryLucky888

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$2,609.61

Value

$786.08

PnL

-$90.68

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

CannaeARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$550.86

Value

$546.47

PnL

-$4.4

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$305.3542¢-$28.91

Fenerbahçe SK$245.5155.5¢+$24.51

38791873984189ARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$532.25

Value

$413.73

PnL

-$41.24

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$346.8944.5¢-$50.89

Fenerbahçe SK$108.0856¢+$9.65

DolphinBallerCTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$379.99

Value

$379.99

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

109-135 (244)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$506.38

Value

$265.43

PnL

-$9.47

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$186.961¢+$1.53

Liverpool FC$8844¢-$11

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$224

Value

$244

PnL

+$20

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

nigiri99CTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$238.82

Value

$200.64

PnL

-$38.18

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

HRTrading

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$115.51

Value

$124.66

PnL

+$9.15

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$97.72

Value

$86.86

PnL

-$10.86

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

ghorrock

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$129.17

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$1.74

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

SnakeBall<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$19.16

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

ameisgoat11<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.47

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Fenerbahçe SK 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-43 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Fenerbahçe SK) and the top 1000 (14 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleFenerbahçe SK 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrLiverpool FC 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liverpool FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.