PSV vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5

22 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $160K held · ended Nov 4

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$160.2K

Combined PnL

$11.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 99.5¢

+92% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

22 of 38 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over16 traders

Total Value$48.2K

Total Shares94,318

Combined PnL-$377.82

Under22 traders

Total Value$87.5K

Total Shares127,274

Combined PnL+$11.6K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 51.6¢	$30.3K	$31.2K	+$294.42	49% 193-199 (392)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 53.4¢	$20.3K	$27.9K	+$7.6K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 54.4¢	$14.0K	$16.1K	+$2.0K	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 48.5¢	$15.2K	$14.9K	-$228.09	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$13.5K	$14.5K	+$974.25	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$7.7K	$8.4K	+$674.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.2¢	$5.8K	$6.1K	+$299.91
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$156.83	47% 497-566 (1063)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 46¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$133.33	50% 2686-2677 (5363)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 49¢	$3.2K	$5.4K	-$133.87	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81.5¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$496.59	73% 2899-1088 (3987)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$5.8K	$3.8K	$-2.1K	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.2¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$788.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.5¢	$4.0K	$1.1K	$-2.8K
VeryLucky888	Underavg 47.2¢	$4.5K	$3.5K	+$22.54	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$35.16	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$23.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$58.18
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$29.75	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$21.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$51
ReformedxCTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$62.28	51% 860-825 (1685)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 37¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$0	64% 244-137 (381)
SE sentrio	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$462.81	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$92.37	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48.3¢	$990.96	$1.6K	+$650.28	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
LI Limousin	Underavg 50.1¢	$862.55	$1.5K	+$677.3	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 50¢	$2.6K	$1.3K	+$38.95	54% 1208-1030 (2238)
73 739633786	Underavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$78	44% 382-483 (865)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$78.32	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$61.3	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49¢	$753.74	$730.89	-$25.2	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
HI hi774c	Underavg 49¢	$672.96	$645.49	-$27.47	50% 4959-4888 (9847)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$30,342.7

Value

$31.2K

PnL

+$294.42

Record

49%

193-199 (392)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$20,271.39

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$14,029.58

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$15,164.61

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$228.09

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$13,494.06

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$974.25

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Over$7,703.2249.2¢+$674.34

Under$5,790.8444.2¢+$299.91

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$7,063.59

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$156.83

Record

47%

497-566 (1063)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$6,133.1

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$133.33

Record

50%

2686-2677 (5363)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$3,233.57

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$133.87

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$3,358.61

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$496.59

Record

73%

2899-1088 (3987)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,838.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Under$1,860.4762.2¢+$788.37

Over$3,977.940.5¢$-2.8K

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$4,508.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$22.54

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,867.89

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$35.16

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Under$1,704.6447.6¢-$23.03

Over$1,163.2650.5¢+$58.18

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,694.5

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$29.75

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Under$1,619.2547.6¢-$21.25

Over$1,075.2550.6¢+$51

ReformedxCTR

Over

Invested

$2,712.28

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$62.28

Record

51%

860-825 (1685)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$2,589.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

244-137 (381)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$1,436.83

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$462.81

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,889.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$92.37

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$990.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$650.28

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$862.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$677.3

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,596.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$38.95

Record

54%

1208-1030 (2238)

739633786

Under

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$78

Record

44%

382-483 (865)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,594.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$78.32

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,138.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$61.3

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$753.74

Value

$730.89

PnL

-$25.2

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$672.96

Value

$645.49

PnL

-$27.47

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

22 of 38 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.