Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jonny Parsons, while the market favors Jose Henrique (100%). 13 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UFC Fight Night: Jonny Parsons vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims)

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Jonny Parsons (57%) · Jonny Parsons at 0.1¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8

Jonny Parsons<1¢Jose Henrique>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jonny Parsons

Consensus Traders

Jonny Parsons 57%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$-10.9K

Smart Money Entry

32.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidJonny Parsons at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonny Parsons

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jose Henrique 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jonny Parsons0%

Jose Henrique100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jose Henrique10 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares16,946

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Jonny Parsons13 traders

Total Value$179.52

Total Shares43,998

Combined PnL$-14.0K

Jose Henrique — 43%Jonny Parsons — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jose Henriqueavg 94.7¢	$6.7K	$7.0K	+$372.24	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
elmcap2	Jose Henriqueavg 69¢	$3.5K	$5.0K	+$1.5K	89% 1725-207 (1932)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jose Henriqueavg 69.7¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$417.09	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FK FKMY	Jose Henriqueavg 73¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$501.39	63% 41-24 (65)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jose Henriqueavg 69¢	$414	$599.7	+$185.7	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
dips.	Jose Henriqueavg 71.8¢	$168.92	$214.08	+$45.16	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 31.3¢	$174.49	$114.86	-$59.64	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Jose Henriqueavg 74.6¢	$567.36	$113.17	+$19.39	66% 653-338 (991)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 35¢	$118.33	$35.9	-$82.43	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jose Henriqueavg 65.5¢	$17.7	$20	+$2.3	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Jose Henriqueavg 66¢	$10	$10.53	+$0.38	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
RL RLWG<$100	Jose Henriqueavg 68¢	$6.8	$10	+$3.2	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
CI cigarettesCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 32.4¢	$5.7K	$8.73	$-5.7K	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jonny Parsonsavg 33¢	$7.17	$7.06	-$0.12	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 31¢	$3.1K	$5.05	$-3.1K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
IC ic4creamCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 33.3¢	$3.3K	$4.96	$-3.3K	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
norrisfanCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 31.1¢	$903.44	$1.45	-$901.99	40% 502-747 (1249)
VE VenusianCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 33¢	$344.2	$0.52	-$343.68	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 30.8¢	$247.16	$0.4	-$246.76	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Jonny Parsonsavg 25¢	$200	$0.4	-$199.6	47% 14-16 (30)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Jonny Parsonsavg 32¢	$82.46	$0.13	-$82.34	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jonny Parsonsavg 37.4¢	$39.03	$0.05	-$38.98	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Jonny Parsonsavg 34¢	$9.49	$0.01	-$9.48	46% 5332-6170 (11502)

takeormake

Jose Henrique

Invested

$6,653.07

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$372.24

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

elmcap2

Jose Henrique

Invested

$3,450

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

89%

1725-207 (1932)

omnibus-076daa

Jose Henrique

Invested

$1,666.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$417.09

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

FKMY

Jose Henrique

Invested

$1,358.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$501.39

Record

63%

41-24 (65)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jose Henrique

Invested

$414

Value

$599.7

PnL

+$185.7

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

dips.

Jose Henrique

Invested

$168.92

Value

$214.08

PnL

+$45.16

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

FlaznorpCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$174.49

Value

$114.86

PnL

-$59.64

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Jose Henrique

Invested

$567.36

Value

$113.17

PnL

+$19.39

Record

66%

653-338 (991)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$118.33

Value

$35.9

PnL

-$82.43

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jose Henrique

Invested

$17.7

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.3

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Jose Henrique

Invested

$10

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

RLWG<$100

Jose Henrique

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.2

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

cigarettesCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$5,660.5

Value

$8.73

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$7.17

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$3,129.52

Value

$5.05

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

ic4creamCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$3,297.87

Value

$4.96

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

norrisfanCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$903.44

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$901.99

Record

40%

502-747 (1249)

VenusianCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$344.2

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$343.68

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$247.16

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$246.76

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

CornerGamingCTR

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$200

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$199.6

Record

47%

14-16 (30)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$82.46

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$82.34

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$39.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$38.98

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

hi774cCTR<$100

Jonny Parsons

Invested

$9.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.48

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Research grade

AvoidJonny Parsons at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jonny Parsons

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jose Henrique 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonny Parsons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.