Cali: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Despina Papamichail

16 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Despina Papamichail (55%) · Despina Papamichail at 100¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 10

Maria Lourdes Carle<1¢Despina Papamichail>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Despina Papamichail

Consensus Traders

Despina Papamichail 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDespina Papamichail at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Despina Papamichail

16 of 29 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maria Lourdes Carle0%

Despina Papamichail100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Despina Papamichail16 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares22,851

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Maria Lourdes Carle13 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,433

Combined PnL-$879.72

Despina Papamichail — 55%Maria Lourdes Carle — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Despina Papamichailavg 67.6¢	$7.8K	$7.4K	-$406.01	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
RN1	Despina Papamichailavg 61.7¢	$4.9K	$6.6K	+$1.6K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 62.7¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$335.84	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 62.7¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$521.63
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 47.3¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$857.47
MA MadridTime	Despina Papamichailavg 65.5¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$383.05	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 69.9¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$586.47	54% 906-787 (1693)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 69.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$65.26
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 50¢	$1.4K	$796.71	-$651.72
MR MrDoucheCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 48.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$80.29	82% 1706-380 (2086)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 51.1¢	$3.0K	$1.9K	$-1.1K	53% 916-813 (1729)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 82.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$63.31
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 51.1¢	$1.6K	$415	$-1.2K
LI Limousin	Despina Papamichailavg 64.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$123.92	56% 942-736 (1678)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$547.9	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 48¢	$1.3K	$745.49	-$510.34
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 76.1¢	$618.28	$580.72	-$37.56
38 38791873984189	Despina Papamichailavg 56¢	$1.2K	$949.93	+$99.93	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 35¢	$1.3K	$424.07	-$879.93	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 30.8¢	$321.24	$307.72	-$13.52	53% 3273-2894 (6167)
HV HVABCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 27.9¢	$1.9K	$305.56	-$62.74	76% 586-188 (774)
1L 1lovejump	Despina Papamichailavg 51.7¢	$913.31	$283.76	+$35.3	52% 702-642 (1344)
OM omnibus-076daa	Despina Papamichailavg 60.2¢	$260.27	$252.88	-$7.39	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
tradecraftCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 20.3¢	$124.95	$150.92	+$25.97	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Despina Papamichailavg 60¢	$150.93	$145.36	-$5.57	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
VeryLucky888	Despina Papamichailavg 29¢	$127.97	$135.22	+$7.25	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
CI cigarettes<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 73.5¢	$73.5	$99.95	+$26.45	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 29¢	$79.72	$85.22	+$5.5	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
poshposh<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 81.3¢	$52.96	$47.24	-$5.72	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 26.8¢	$59.52	$27.75	-$31.77	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
OL olpy<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 73.6¢	$21.91	$25	+$3.09	73% 438-160 (598)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 24.9¢	$24.66	$23.26	-$1.4	50% 4085-4060 (8145)
US User7429CTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 17.7¢	$8.51	$15.62	+$7.11	55% 8674-6972 (15646)

6512395314597884

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$7,812.3

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$406.01

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

RN1

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$4,937.01

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

NotJumpARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$4,994.1

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$335.84

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$3,042.262.7¢+$521.63

Maria Lourdes Carle$1,951.947.3¢-$857.47

MadridTime

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$2,525.05

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$383.05

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$3,185.59

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$586.47

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$1,737.1569.9¢+$65.26

Maria Lourdes Carle$1,448.4350¢-$651.72

MrDoucheCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,219.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$80.29

Record

82%

1706-380 (2086)

VenusianARB<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,995.28

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$1,423.7682.8¢+$63.31

Maria Lourdes Carle$1,571.5251.1¢$-1.2K

Limousin

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$1,292.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$123.92

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1,874.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$547.9

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

Both legs:

Maria Lourdes Carle$1,255.8348¢-$510.34

Despina Papamichail$618.2876.1¢-$37.56

38791873984189

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$1,161.3

Value

$949.93

PnL

+$99.93

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

FlaznorpCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1,304.01

Value

$424.07

PnL

-$879.93

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$321.24

Value

$307.72

PnL

-$13.52

Record

53%

3273-2894 (6167)

HVABCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1,906.84

Value

$305.56

PnL

-$62.74

Record

76%

586-188 (774)

1lovejump

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$913.31

Value

$283.76

PnL

+$35.3

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

omnibus-076daa

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$260.27

Value

$252.88

PnL

-$7.39

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

tradecraftCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$124.95

Value

$150.92

PnL

+$25.97

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$150.93

Value

$145.36

PnL

-$5.57

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

VeryLucky888

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$127.97

Value

$135.22

PnL

+$7.25

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

cigarettes<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$73.5

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$26.45

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

Lilybaeum<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$79.72

Value

$85.22

PnL

+$5.5

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

poshposh<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$52.96

Value

$47.24

PnL

-$5.72

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$59.52

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$31.77

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

olpy<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$21.91

Value

$25

PnL

+$3.09

Record

73%

438-160 (598)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$24.66

Value

$23.26

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

4085-4060 (8145)

User7429CTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$8.51

Value

$15.62

PnL

+$7.11

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

Research grade

NeutralDespina Papamichail at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Despina Papamichail

16 of 29 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Despina Papamichail wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.