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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | lightningbolts | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (71–72, n=143) | 100% (5–0, n=5) | 66% (497–255, n=752) |
| Consensus PnL | -$252K | $5.9K | -$131K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #13 | was PM monthly #995 | PM monthly #48 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 44% (15 of 34 open) | no open consensus position | 59% (94 of 158 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 72 at avg 60¢, ROI +36% | 100% of 6 at avg 65¢, ROI +32% | 100% of 206 at avg 68¢, ROI +33% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 50% of 2) | 0% | 6% (won 100% of 12) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 26% (won 95% of 19) | 17% (won 100% of 1) | 13% (won 100% of 26) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 46% (won 100% of 33) | 50% (won 100% of 3) | 30% (won 100% of 62) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 25% (won 100% of 18) | 33% (won 100% of 2) | 51% (won 100% of 106) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | lightningbolts | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $12K | — | Over $2.7K |
| UMass vs. Toledo opposite sides · consensus Toledo | Toledo $1.7K | — | UMass $138 |
| Spread: Toledo (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus UMass | Toledo $520 | — | UMass $1.3K |
| Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $2 | — | Over $18 |
| Buffalo vs. Ball State same side · consensus Ball State | Buffalo $125K | — | Buffalo $10K |
| Spread: Celtics (-4.5) same side · consensus Raptors | Raptors $15K | — | Raptors $450 |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Raptors | Raptors $9.9K | — | Raptors $627 |
| Spread: Lakers (-13.5) same side · consensus Lakers | Bucks $2.5K | — | Bucks $136 |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-17.5) same side · consensus Central Michigan | Sacramento State $6 | — | Sacramento State $1.6K |
| Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5 same side · consensus Over | Under $789 | — | Under $400 |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $23 | — | Cavaliers $352 |
| Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $178 | — | Under $188 |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | Knicks $63 | — | Knicks $265 |
| Spread: Lakers (-14.5) same side · consensus Bucks | Bucks $150 | — | Bucks $25 |
| Campbell Fighting Camels vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers same side · consensus East Tennessee State Buccaneers | East Tennessee State Buccaneers $96 | — | East Tennessee State Buccaneers $16 |