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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579BreakTheBankCORGIIndb1
Record (consensus markets)40% (381–566, n=947)45% (547–663, n=1210)62% (397–248, n=645)66% (875–457, n=1332)
Consensus PnL$24K$11.0M$194K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #457PM monthly #1PM monthly #104PM monthly #22
Sides with the consensus63% (37 of 59 open)85% (160 of 189 open)100% (1 of 1 open)72% (92 of 128 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicSoccer −3 pts, n=104——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won63% of 1748 at avg 63¢, ROI +3%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%99% of 401 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢35% (won 2% of 605)10% (won 79% of 58)9% (won 92% of 36)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢3% (won 44% of 45)36% (won 98% of 200)56% (won 99% of 224)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢3% (won 67% of 54)35% (won 99% of 194)33% (won 100% of 134)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up60% (won 99% of 1044)19% (won 100% of 107)2% (won 100% of 7)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579BreakTheBankCORGIIndb1
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $206K—Yes $1.3M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.5K—No $1.4M
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $85K—No $992K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $267K—Yes $559K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $289K—No $78K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $126K—Yes $81K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $92K—No $88K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $51K—No $832
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $4Yes $21K——
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2Yes $15K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $14K—No $345
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $28——Yes $422
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $184K—Yes $2.9M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407K—No $335K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $278K—Yes $11K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $43K—No $46K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $51K—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $36K—Yes $3
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $123—No $3.1K