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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)37% (294–499, n=793)45% (542–652, n=1194)65% (862–456, n=1318)
Consensus PnL$58K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #18PM monthly #1PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensus69% (18 of 26 open)87% (143 of 164 open)68% (48 of 71 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicElections −2 pts, n=206—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won64% of 1297 at avg 63¢, ROI +3%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢34% (won 2% of 445)10% (won 82% of 56)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢2% (won 56% of 25)36% (won 98% of 198)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢3% (won 72% of 39)35% (won 99% of 191)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up61% (won 99% of 788)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354BreakTheBankndb1
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $919KYes $315K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $253KYes $667K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $202KYes $408K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $85KNo $479K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $274KNo $99K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $114KYes $90K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $83KNo $97K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $421Yes $31K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $21KNo $9.0K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $9.3KNo $346
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $172KYes $2.7M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407KNo $335K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $280KYes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $28KYes $12K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $138No $30K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $16KYes $2
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $6.4KYes $2