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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (6838–7606, n=14444) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $323K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #167 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (117 of 157 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) | no open consensus position | 67% (22 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=1794 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 50% of 15740 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 33% (won 5% of 5199) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 32% of 1681) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 52% of 1780) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 45% (won 86% of 7080) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.