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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | MadridTime | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 52% (619–570, n=1189) | 66% (876–458, n=1334) | 47% (14348–15981, n=30329) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | -$2.9K | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #789 | PM monthly #26 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 64% (72 of 113 open) | 70% (43 of 61 open) | 72% (28 of 39 open) | 60% (36 of 60 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 367 at avg 70¢, ROI +30% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 5% (won 100% of 20) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 17% (won 100% of 63) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 23% (won 100% of 83) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 55% (won 100% of 201) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
22 on the same side, 15 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | MadridTime | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $77K | — | No $1.9M | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.4K | — | No $1.4M | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $187K | — | Yes $777K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | No $265K | — | Yes $544K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $287K | — | No $61K | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $28K | — | No $831 | — |
| Costa do Sauipe: Filip Misolic vs Juan Pablo Varillas opposite sides · consensus Filip Misolic | — | Juan Pablo Varillas $1.2K | — | Filip Misolic $9.6K |
| Bratislava 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer opposite sides · consensus Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | — | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer $3.0K | — | Shintaro Mochizuki $20 |
| Cali: Sofia Costoulas vs Marina Bassols Ribera opposite sides · consensus Marina Bassols Ribera | — | Marina Bassols Ribera $992 | — | Sofia Costoulas $933 |
| Charlottesville: Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavsky opposite sides · consensus Daniel Milavsky | — | Daniel Milavsky $1.2K | — | Alexis Galarneau $695 |
| Bratislava 2: Dalibor Svrcina vs Norbert Gombos opposite sides · consensus Dalibor Svrcina | — | Dalibor Svrcina $819 | — | Norbert Gombos $24 |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $4 | — | Over $424 |
| Will Deportivo Pereira vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $39 | — | No $54 |
| Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $34 | — | No $10 |
| Cali: Rebeka Masarova vs Alice Tubello opposite sides · consensus Alice Tubello | — | Alice Tubello $24 | — | Rebeka Masarova $15 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $183K | — | Yes $324K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $42K | — | No $94K | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar same side · consensus Casper Ruud | — | Casper Ruud $11K | — | Casper Ruud $39K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $28K | — | Yes $12K | — |
| Costa do Sauipe: Rafael Tosetto vs Franco Roncadelli same side · consensus Franco Roncadelli | — | Franco Roncadelli $25K | — | Franco Roncadelli $10K |
| Cali: Julia Grabher vs Laura Pigossi same side · consensus Julia Grabher | — | Julia Grabher $5.2K | — | Julia Grabher $26K |
| Charlottesville: Harry Wendelken vs Andres Andrade same side · consensus Andres Andrade | — | Harry Wendelken $20 | — | Harry Wendelken $25K |
| Chennai Open: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Simona Waltert same side · consensus Simona Waltert | — | Simona Waltert $5.2K | — | Simona Waltert $9.0K |
| Villa Maria: Alan Magadan vs Valerio Aboian same side · consensus Valerio Aboian | — | Valerio Aboian $4.7K | — | Valerio Aboian $8.0K |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $3.5K | — | No $7.0K | — |
| Cali: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Despina Papamichail same side · consensus Despina Papamichail | — | Despina Papamichail $2.9K | — | Despina Papamichail $6.6K |
| Villa Maria: Dante Pagani vs Murkel Dellien same side · consensus Murkel Dellien | — | Murkel Dellien $8 | — | Murkel Dellien $8.2K |
| Costa do Sauipe: Lucas Da Silva vs Lautaro Midon same side · consensus Lautaro Midon | — | Lautaro Midon $2.2K | — | Lautaro Midon $4.2K |
| Cali: Valentina Mediorreal vs Julia Riera same side · consensus Julia Riera | — | Julia Riera $890 | — | Julia Riera $5.1K |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $157 | — | No $4.0K | — |
| Bratislava 2: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jonas Forejtek same side · consensus Kimmer Coppejans | — | Kimmer Coppejans $464 | — | Kimmer Coppejans $3.1K |
| Villa Maria: Valentino Grippo vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri same side · consensus Genaro Alberto Olivieri | — | Genaro Alberto Olivieri $784 | — | Genaro Alberto Olivieri $710 |
| Cali: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu same side · consensus Bianca Andreescu | — | Bianca Andreescu $408 | — | Bianca Andreescu $837 |
| Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-11-03? same side · consensus No | — | No $365 | — | No $422 |
| Deportivo Pereira vs. CD Tolima: O/U 5.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $46 | — | Over $400 |
| Costa do Sauipe: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna same side · consensus Joao Lucas Da Silva | — | Joao Lucas Da Silva $256 | — | Joao Lucas Da Silva $18 |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Mirassol FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $34 | — | Under $9 |