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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Haradwaith | joseph00677 | ndb1 | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (28307–19247, n=47554) | 45% (10–12, n=22) | 64% (1097–630, n=1727) | 51% (28105–27112, n=55217) |
| Consensus PnL | -$473K | $5.3M | $4.8M | $1.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #223 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #97 | PM monthly #8 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (586 of 826 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (110 of 151 open) | 64% (44 of 69 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −6 pts, n=589 | — | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 37% of 4101 at avg 40¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 39731 at avg 67¢, ROI +36% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 56% (won 3% of 2296) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 7% (won 99% of 2699) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 34% of 173) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 20% (won 100% of 7974) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 49% of 168) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 22% (won 100% of 8588) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 89% of 1464) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 52% (won 100% of 20470) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
14 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.