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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HorribleWork | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (432–235, n=667) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | -$238K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 6% (1 of 17 open) | 72% (73 of 102 open) | no open consensus position | 67% (14 of 21 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Economy −6 pts, n=36 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 615 at avg 67¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 15% of 163) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 36% of 39) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 35) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 61% (won 98% of 378) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.