Lima: Nicolas Jarry vs Maximo Zeitune
19 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Jarry (70%) · Nicolas Jarry at 92¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Nicolas Jarry
27
Nicolas Jarry 70%
3 arb excluded
$58.3K
$-2.0K
82.7¢ → 91.5¢
+11% since entry · 19 traders
Research grade
NeutralNicolas Jarry at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
19 of 27 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 01258787xy48487484545122 | Nicolas Jarryavg 80¢ | $51.9K | $23.4K | +$709.45 | — |
 RN1 | Nicolas Jarryavg 85¢ | $11.9K | $10.9K | -$985.39 | — |
65 6512395314597884 | Nicolas Jarryavg 83.6¢ | $9.3K | $8.7K | -$560.11 | — |
VE Venusian | Nicolas Jarryavg 85.6¢ | $3.7K | $3.5K | -$229.43 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Nicolas Jarryavg 83.7¢ | $6.9K | $3.1K | -$29.59 | — |
SH SharkVision | Nicolas Jarryavg 80.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$87.83 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Nicolas Jarryavg 86.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$49.23 | — |
MA MadridTime | Nicolas Jarryavg 87¢ | $1.1K | $877.28 | -$116.27 | — |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Nicolas Jarryavg 87¢ | $1.1K | $828.35 | -$76.95 | — |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Nicolas Jarryavg 88.2¢ | $638.67 | $520.61 | -$92.75 | — |
| └ Nicolas Jarry leg | Nicolas Jarryavg 88.2¢ | $392.66 | $389.53 | -$4.4 | |
| └ Maximo Zeitune leg | Maximo Zeituneavg 20.9¢ | $219.43 | $131.08 | -$88.35 | |
 tradecraftCTR | Maximo Zeituneavg 19.1¢ | $1.1K | $496 | -$556 | — |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Nicolas Jarryavg 81¢ | $349.98 | $378.21 | +$28.23 | — |
EU Eulhunter | Nicolas Jarryavg 85.9¢ | $366.65 | $352.16 | -$14.5 | — |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢ | $288.5 | $305.5 | +$17 | — |
| └ Nicolas Jarry leg | Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢ | $187.5 | $203.75 | +$16.25 | |
| └ Maximo Zeitune leg | Maximo Zeituneavg 18.4¢ | $101 | $101.75 | +$0.75 | |
 TRCMCTR | Maximo Zeituneavg 19.6¢ | $411.34 | $262.42 | -$148.92 | — |
LI LightParadox | Nicolas Jarryavg 89.9¢ | $354.47 | $257.96 | -$77.19 | — |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Nicolas Jarryavg 83.9¢ | $212.3 | $230.3 | +$18 | — |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Maximo Zeituneavg 17¢ | $183.6 | $199.8 | +$16.2 | — |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Nicolas Jarryavg 84.4¢ | $194.1 | $193.61 | -$0.49 | — |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Maximo Zeituneavg 19.3¢ | $262.43 | $144.15 | -$69.08 | — |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Maximo Zeituneavg 17¢ | $85 | $92.5 | +$7.5 | — |
TH thirdt1meARB<$100 | Maximo Zeituneavg 16.7¢ | $74.63 | $92.37 | +$17.74 | — |
| └ Maximo Zeitune leg | Maximo Zeituneavg 16.7¢ | $40.76 | $59.9 | +$19.14 | |
| └ Nicolas Jarry leg | Nicolas Jarryavg 78.7¢ | $33.86 | $32.47 | -$1.4 | |
 dips.<$100 | Nicolas Jarryavg 73.3¢ | $74.45 | $83.74 | +$9.29 | — |
 machinelearned<$100 | Nicolas Jarryavg 88¢ | $68.8 | $62.6 | -$6.2 | — |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Nicolas Jarryavg 87¢ | $59.13 | $49.61 | -$9.52 | — |
Invested
$51,923.94
Value
$23.4K
PnL
+$709.45
Record
—
RN1Invested
$11,904.97
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$985.39
Record
—
Invested
$9,306.78
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$560.11
Record
—
Invested
$3,701.24
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$229.43
Record
—
Invested
$6,880.47
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$29.59
Record
—
Invested
$2,007.24
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$87.83
Record
—
Invested
$1,037.95
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$49.23
Record
—
Invested
$1,057.27
Value
$877.28
PnL
-$116.27
Record
—
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18Invested
$1,104.57
Value
$828.35
PnL
-$76.95
Record
—
Invested
$638.67
Value
$520.61
PnL
-$92.75
Record
—
Both legs:
tradecraftCTRInvested
$1,051.99
Value
$496
PnL
-$556
Record
—
Invested
$349.98
Value
$378.21
PnL
+$28.23
Record
—
Invested
$366.65
Value
$352.16
PnL
-$14.5
Record
—
Invested
$288.5
Value
$305.5
PnL
+$17
Record
—
Both legs:
TRCMCTRInvested
$411.34
Value
$262.42
PnL
-$148.92
Record
—
Invested
$354.47
Value
$257.96
PnL
-$77.19
Record
—
Invested
$212.3
Value
$230.3
PnL
+$18
Record
—
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$183.6
Value
$199.8
PnL
+$16.2
Record
—
Invested
$194.1
Value
$193.61
PnL
-$0.49
Record
—
Invested
$262.43
Value
$144.15
PnL
-$69.08
Record
—
Invested
$85
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
—
Invested
$74.63
Value
$92.37
PnL
+$17.74
Record
—
Both legs:
dips.<$100Invested
$74.45
Value
$83.74
PnL
+$9.29
Record
—
machinelearned<$100Invested
$68.8
Value
$62.6
PnL
-$6.2
Record
—
Invested
$59.13
Value
$49.61
PnL
-$9.52
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
01258787xy48487484545122
Nicolas Jarry — $23.4K
RN1
Nicolas Jarry — $10.9K
6512395314597884
Nicolas Jarry — $8.7K
Venusian
Nicolas Jarry — $3.5K
38791873984189
Nicolas Jarry — $3.1K
SharkVision
Nicolas Jarry — $2.1K
Flaznorp
Nicolas Jarry — $1.1K
MadridTime
Nicolas Jarry — $877.28
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18
Nicolas Jarry — $828.35
Limousin
ARBArbitrage — excluded