Knoxville: Mitchell Krueger vs Lui Maxted

16 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Lui Maxted (59%) · Lui Maxted at 98¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 16

Mitchell Krueger3¢Lui Maxted97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lui Maxted

Consensus Traders

Lui Maxted 59%

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$502.77

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 97.5¢

+28% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

16 of 27 top traders (59%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mitchell Krueger3%

Lui Maxted98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lui Maxted16 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares27,167

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Mitchell Krueger11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares25,598

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Lui Maxted — 59%Mitchell Krueger — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Lui Maxted. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLui Maxted 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpMitchell Krueger 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLui Maxted 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLui Maxted 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lui Maxted 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Lui Maxtedavg 79.4¢	$10.6K	$12.9K	+$2.3K	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
RN1	Lui Maxtedavg 63¢	$2.5K	$3.9K	+$1.3K	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
TH thirdt1me	Lui Maxtedavg 73.4¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$564.51	58% 237-173 (410)
38 38791873984189	Lui Maxtedavg 65¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$656.75	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
FL Flaznorp	Lui Maxtedavg 89.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$56.82	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
VE Venusian	Lui Maxtedavg 82.7¢	$975.02	$969.69	-$5.32	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
MA MadridTime	Lui Maxtedavg 94¢	$818.87	$835.65	+$22.29	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 27¢	$3.4K	$439.85	$-3.0K	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
SL SlickRick123	Lui Maxtedavg 88¢	$326.93	$343.65	+$16.72	47% 6400-7112 (13512)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 34.9¢	$489.88	$236.42	-$253.45	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 19.1¢	$744.52	$190.24	-$562.86	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
LR lryyy	Lui Maxtedavg 89¢	$156.64	$169.84	+$13.2	48% 40329-43288 (83617)
TRCMCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 10.4¢	$209	$150	-$59	55% 4142-3335 (7477)
EU Eulhunter	Lui Maxtedavg 89.8¢	$126.89	$122.57	-$4.33	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
PA pauleta23	Lui Maxtedavg 78.6¢	$110	$119.24	+$9.24	65% 25766-13860 (39626)
machinelearned<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 77.3¢	$64.7	$77.9	+$13.2	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 11.3¢	$227.84	$70.88	-$156.97	58% 2818-2024 (4842)
tradecraftCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 9.6¢	$192.5	$70	-$122.5	51% 6933-6586 (13519)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 12.5¢	$112.75	$67.5	-$45.25	56% 2000-1544 (3544)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 78¢	$44.48	$55	+$10.52	57% 20333-15125 (35458)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 23.2¢	$287.99	$50.82	-$237.17	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
EF efntrick<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 44¢	$33.55	$30.12	-$3.43	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
SE sentrio<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 44¢	$32.34	$12.77	-$1.46	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
0xheavy888<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 47¢	$14.21	$11.19	-$3.02	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 32.5¢	$52.12	$7.22	-$44.89	52% 6205-5726 (11931)

6512395314597884

Lui Maxted

Invested

$10,606.65

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

RN1

Lui Maxted

Invested

$2,513.75

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

thirdt1me

Lui Maxted

Invested

$2,180.42

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$564.51

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

38791873984189

Lui Maxted

Invested

$1,552.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$656.75

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Flaznorp

Lui Maxted

Invested

$1,535.03

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$56.82

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Venusian

Lui Maxted

Invested

$975.02

Value

$969.69

PnL

-$5.32

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

MadridTime

Lui Maxted

Invested

$818.87

Value

$835.65

PnL

+$22.29

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$3,391.69

Value

$439.85

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

SlickRick123

Lui Maxted

Invested

$326.93

Value

$343.65

PnL

+$16.72

Record

47%

6400-7112 (13512)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$489.88

Value

$236.42

PnL

-$253.45

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

LightParadoxCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$744.52

Value

$190.24

PnL

-$562.86

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

lryyy

Lui Maxted

Invested

$156.64

Value

$169.84

PnL

+$13.2

Record

48%

40329-43288 (83617)

TRCMCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$209

Value

$150

PnL

-$59

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

Eulhunter

Lui Maxted

Invested

$126.89

Value

$122.57

PnL

-$4.33

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

pauleta23

Lui Maxted

Invested

$110

Value

$119.24

PnL

+$9.24

Record

65%

25766-13860 (39626)

machinelearned<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$64.7

Value

$77.9

PnL

+$13.2

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

flatbarrelCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$227.84

Value

$70.88

PnL

-$156.97

Record

58%

2818-2024 (4842)

tradecraftCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$192.5

Value

$70

PnL

-$122.5

Record

51%

6933-6586 (13519)

SchruteBucksCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$112.75

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$45.25

Record

56%

2000-1544 (3544)

BillBenter2026<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$44.48

Value

$55

PnL

+$10.52

Record

57%

20333-15125 (35458)

thestingsnakeCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$287.99

Value

$50.82

PnL

-$237.17

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

efntrick<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$33.55

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$3.43

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

sentrio<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$32.34

Value

$12.77

PnL

-$1.46

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

0xheavy888<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$14.21

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$3.02

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$52.12

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$44.89

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Research grade

NeutralLui Maxted at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lui Maxted

16 of 27 top traders (59%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Lui Maxted. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLui Maxted 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpMitchell Krueger 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLui Maxted 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLui Maxted 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lui Maxted 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lui Maxted wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.