Resolution Proposed

A resolution has been proposed and is in the challenge window. Awaiting UMA oracle settlement.

Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Billy Harris

17 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Jan Kumstat (55%) · Jan Kumstat at 100¢ · $52K held · awaiting resolution

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PENDING

⏳

Pending

Consensus Traders

Jan Kumstat 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

17 of 31 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jan Kumstat100%

Billy Harris0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jan Kumstat17 traders

Total Value$44.3K

Total Shares46,891

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Billy Harris14 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares11,616

Combined PnL-$76.61

Jan Kumstat — 55%Billy Harris — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jan Kumstatavg 90.9¢	$20.4K	$15.6K	$-4.8K	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
FL Flaznorp	Jan Kumstatavg 80.4¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$447.47	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
VE Venusian	Jan Kumstatavg 82.4¢	$4.9K	$5.7K	+$809.69	52% 1149-1066 (2215)
LI LightParadox	Jan Kumstatavg 86.3¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$114.02	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
38 38791873984189	Jan Kumstatavg 86.2¢	$5.8K	$3.0K	-$377.36	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
MA MadridTime	Jan Kumstatavg 88.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$59.74	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
VeryLucky888CTR	Billy Harrisavg 45.8¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	-$147.65	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
PA Paul973973	Jan Kumstatavg 97.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$6.68	89% 980-125 (1105)
TRCM	Jan Kumstatavg 86.6¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$979.34	55% 4024-3247 (7271)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Billy Harrisavg 45.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$74.29	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
nigiri99CTR	Billy Harrisavg 49.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$57.98	46% 8334-9729 (18063)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Jan Kumstatavg 53.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$39.17	39% 431-688 (1119)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Billy Harrisavg 46.1¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	$-1.5K	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 95.8¢	$740.76	$704.59	-$36.17
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 46.1¢	$1.8K	$340.27	$-1.4K
BA Bagwell306CTR	Billy Harrisavg 45¢	$708.61	$740.1	+$31.49	57% 4151-3123 (7274)
EU Eulhunter	Jan Kumstatavg 92.4¢	$574.63	$606.45	+$31.82	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
1L 1lovejump	Jan Kumstatavg 86.4¢	$1.8K	$543.42	+$44.85	52% 730-668 (1398)
TH thestingsnake	Jan Kumstatavg 73.3¢	$3.0K	$318.94	+$250.42	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jan Kumstatavg 79¢	$297.95	$296.84	-$1.12	52% 14207-12987 (27194)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Billy Harrisavg 47¢	$187.97	$191.97	+$4	51% 1779-1697 (3476)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Billy Harrisavg 45¢	$161.56	$168.74	+$7.18	50% 2654-2649 (5303)
0xheavy888CTR	Billy Harrisavg 46¢	$99.6	$102.89	+$3.28	55% 7668-6154 (13822)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 46¢	$56.01	$58.44	+$0.61	61% 14014-9029 (23043)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 59.5¢	$66.78	$58.16	-$8.62	57% 19055-14098 (33153)
SC SchruteBucks	Jan Kumstatavg 48.3¢	$590.15	$31.85	+$5.99	56% 1923-1489 (3412)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 50.9¢	$26.85	$21.82	-$5.03	66% 23969-12155 (36124)

RN1

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$20,386.13

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

Flaznorp

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$6,501.46

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$447.47

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

Venusian

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$4,881.38

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$809.69

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

LightParadox

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$3,522.51

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$114.02

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

38791873984189

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$5,843.74

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$377.36

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

MadridTime

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$2,920.27

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$59.74

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

VeryLucky888CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$3,802.36

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$147.65

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

Paul973973

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$1,967.15

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$6.68

Record

89%

980-125 (1105)

TRCM

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$2,702.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$979.34

Record

55%

4024-3247 (7271)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$1,486.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$74.29

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

nigiri99CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$1,270.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57.98

Record

46%

8334-9729 (18063)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$1,228.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39.17

Record

39%

431-688 (1119)

LimousinARB<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$2,513.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

Both legs:

Jan Kumstat$740.7695.8¢-$36.17

Billy Harris$1,772.5846.1¢$-1.4K

Bagwell306CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$708.61

Value

$740.1

PnL

+$31.49

Record

57%

4151-3123 (7274)

Eulhunter

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$574.63

Value

$606.45

PnL

+$31.82

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

1lovejump

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$1,823.42

Value

$543.42

PnL

+$44.85

Record

52%

730-668 (1398)

thestingsnake

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$3,025.1

Value

$318.94

PnL

+$250.42

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$297.95

Value

$296.84

PnL

-$1.12

Record

52%

14207-12987 (27194)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$187.97

Value

$191.97

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1779-1697 (3476)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$161.56

Value

$168.74

PnL

+$7.18

Record

50%

2654-2649 (5303)

0xheavy888CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$99.6

Value

$102.89

PnL

+$3.28

Record

55%

7668-6154 (13822)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$56.01

Value

$58.44

PnL

+$0.61

Record

61%

14014-9029 (23043)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$66.78

Value

$58.16

PnL

-$8.62

Record

57%

19055-14098 (33153)

SchruteBucks

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$590.15

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$5.99

Record

56%

1923-1489 (3412)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$26.85

Value

$21.82

PnL

-$5.03

Record

66%

23969-12155 (36124)

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

17 of 31 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x24fb10e5...447bb0

Slug

atp-kumstat-harris-2026-11-03

Traders in this Market

RN1

Jan Kumstat — $15.6K

$-4.8K

Flaznorp

Jan Kumstat — $6.9K

+$447.47

Venusian

Jan Kumstat — $5.7K

+$809.69

LightParadox

Jan Kumstat — $3.4K

-$114.02

38791873984189

Jan Kumstat — $3.0K

-$377.36

MadridTime

Jan Kumstat — $2.9K

-$59.74

VeryLucky888

CTR

Billy Harris — $2.3K

-$147.65

Paul973973

Jan Kumstat — $2.0K

+$6.68

TRCM

Jan Kumstat — $1.7K

AnonymousUsername

Billy Harris — $1.6K