Monastir: Semen Pankin vs Maxime Janvier

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Maxime Janvier (69%) · Maxime Janvier at 100¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 16

Semen Pankin<1¢Maxime Janvier>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maxime Janvier

Consensus Traders

Maxime Janvier 69%

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$8.6K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Semen Pankin0%

Maxime Janvier100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxime Janvier20 traders

Total Value$40.6K

Total Shares40,840

Combined PnL+$7.8K

Semen Pankin9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares11,454

Combined PnL+$768.56

Maxime Janvier — 69%Semen Pankin — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Maxime Janvier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Semen Pankin) and the top 1000 (18 on Maxime Janvier) disagree here.

whaleMaxime Janvier 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpMaxime Janvier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxime Janvier 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSemen Pankin 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maxime Janvier 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Maxime Janvieravg 73.6¢	$7.9K	$10.2K	+$2.2K	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
LI LightParadox	Maxime Janvieravg 71.3¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$914.88	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
TH thirdt1me	Maxime Janvieravg 83.6¢	$4.9K	$3.7K	-$184.42	58% 237-173 (410)
38 38791873984189	Maxime Janvieravg 80¢	$8.2K	$3.6K	+$448.03	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
SL SlickRick123	Maxime Janvieravg 75¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$778.91	47% 6400-7112 (13512)
PA Paul973973	Maxime Janvieravg 96.6¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$3.1K	89% 1167-147 (1314)
TH thestingsnake	Maxime Janvieravg 70.1¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	+$89.16	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
MA MadridTime	Maxime Janvieravg 69.4¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	-$537.67	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
LI Limousin	Maxime Janvieravg 69.6¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$749.98	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
LO looppau	Maxime Janvieravg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 16255-134 (16389)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Semen Pankinavg 26.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$1.6K	71% 975-390 (1365)
CI cigarettes	Maxime Janvieravg 80.3¢	$637	$637.22	+$0.22	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Semen Pankinavg 13.4¢	$1.1K	$601.35	-$543.59	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Maxime Janvieravg 76¢	$509.65	$534.25	+$24.6	53% 15729-13882 (29611)
machinelearned	Maxime Janvieravg 73.8¢	$252.77	$283.11	+$30.33	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Semen Pankinavg 32¢	$536.63	$280.74	-$255.88	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
EU Eulhunter	Maxime Janvieravg 51.6¢	$109.99	$213.16	+$103.17	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Maxime Janvieravg 59.1¢	$97.99	$116.67	+$18.69	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Semen Pankinavg 55¢	$119.71	$86.01	-$33.7	57% 20333-15125 (35458)
TRCM<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 78.9¢	$59.14	$74.96	+$15.82	55% 4142-3335 (7477)
SE sentrio<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 58.2¢	$20.56	$20.67	+$0.11	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 44¢	$18.91	$14.4	-$4.51	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 76¢	$11.7	$13.48	+$1.77	56% 39945-31555 (71500)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 41¢	$6.95	$5.68	-$1.27	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
PA pauleta23<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 94¢	$4.59	$4.92	+$5.78	65% 25766-13860 (39626)

Venusian

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$7,923.63

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

LightParadox

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$2,931.47

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$914.88

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

thirdt1me

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$4,878.92

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$184.42

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

38791873984189

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$8,228.18

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$448.03

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

SlickRick123

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$2,341.41

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$778.91

Record

47%

6400-7112 (13512)

Paul973973

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$3,005.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

89%

1167-147 (1314)

thestingsnake

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$3,166.32

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$89.16

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

MadridTime

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$3,394.21

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$537.67

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

Limousin

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$2,041.76

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$749.98

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

looppau

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

16255-134 (16389)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$1,266.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

71%

975-390 (1365)

cigarettes

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$637

Value

$637.22

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$1,144.94

Value

$601.35

PnL

-$543.59

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$509.65

Value

$534.25

PnL

+$24.6

Record

53%

15729-13882 (29611)

machinelearned

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$252.77

Value

$283.11

PnL

+$30.33

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

FlaznorpCTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$536.63

Value

$280.74

PnL

-$255.88

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Eulhunter

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$109.99

Value

$213.16

PnL

+$103.17

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$97.99

Value

$116.67

PnL

+$18.69

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

BillBenter2026CTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$119.71

Value

$86.01

PnL

-$33.7

Record

57%

20333-15125 (35458)

TRCM<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$59.14

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$15.82

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

sentrio<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$20.56

Value

$20.67

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$18.91

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$4.51

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$11.7

Value

$13.48

PnL

+$1.77

Record

56%

39945-31555 (71500)

efntrickCTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$6.95

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$1.27

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

pauleta23<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$5.78

Record

65%

25766-13860 (39626)

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Maxime Janvier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Semen Pankin) and the top 1000 (18 on Maxime Janvier) disagree here.

whaleMaxime Janvier 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpMaxime Janvier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxime Janvier 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSemen Pankin 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maxime Janvier 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxime Janvier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.