Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-11-04?

12 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 95¢ · $85K held · ended Nov 5

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$84.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 95¢

+39% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 30 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$50.0K

Total Shares59,076

Combined PnL+$5.8K

No18 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares58,249

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (26 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 74.9¢	$25.7K	$29.8K	+$4.1K	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 64.5¢	$4.9K	$5.8K	+$924.7	57% 2006-1484 (3490)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.5¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$234.79
└ No leg	Noavg 21.3¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$689.91
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 60.5¢	$5.0K	$5.5K	+$483.8	50% 27855-27713 (55568)
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Noavg 40¢	$8.3K	$5.1K	$-3.2K	46% 57-68 (125)
JhonAlexanderHinestrozaCTR	Noavg 11.7¢	$1.5K	$4.0K	+$2.5K	55% 1178-955 (2133)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Noavg 42.7¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$697.12	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.7¢	$3.4K	$2.5K	-$934.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$236.94
XW xwingboyCTR	Noavg 42.2¢	$5.1K	$3.8K	$-1.4K	66% 335-174 (509)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 59.3¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	+$330.93	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 75.9¢	$3.5K	$3.0K	-$553.14	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.9¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$228.85
└ No leg	Noavg 45.3¢	$1.0K	$701.05	-$324.29
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 76.9¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$312.69	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
MD mde4life1986	Yesavg 54.1¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$597.92	47% 161-179 (340)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 57¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$88.57	49% 6216-6354 (12570)
GA GamblingOdyssey	Yesavg 59¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$328.31	51% 906-854 (1760)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 59.6¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$104.81	39% 1400-2160 (3560)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$274
└ No leg	Noavg 38.5¢	$866.94	$697.75	-$169.19
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$73.47	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.5¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$229.5
└ No leg	Noavg 38.7¢	$785.05	$629.02	-$156.03
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 44.6¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$640.06	51% 1246-1188 (2434)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.45	53% 16539-14712 (31251)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60¢	$751.85	$864.63	+$112.78
└ No leg	Noavg 40.1¢	$532.05	$411.82	-$120.23
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 40.6¢	$1.1K	$877.07	-$270.34	50% 1182-1169 (2351)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 62¢	$646.93	$722.69	+$75.76	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
poshposh	Yesavg 60¢	$548.36	$634.59	+$86.23	57% 12394-9456 (21850)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 43¢	$677.38	$488.41	-$188.98	53% 1287-1130 (2417)
snoopy.traderCTR	Noavg 11¢	$100.08	$281.81	+$181.74	41% 336-493 (829)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 78.2¢	$271.93	$280.57	+$8.64	52% 14262-13030 (27292)
tradecraftARB<$100	Noavg 15.6¢	$144.01	$237.46	+$93.45	51% 6302-6067 (12369)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.6¢	$84.51	$168.46	+$83.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.5¢	$59.5	$69	+$9.5
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 19.9¢	$89.31	$139.34	+$50.03	47% 11225-12583 (23808)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$25,703.58

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,914.49

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$924.7

Record

57%

2006-1484 (3490)

Both legs:

Yes$3,400.6364.5¢+$234.79

No$1,513.8621.3¢+$689.91

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$5,016.5

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$483.8

Record

50%

27855-27713 (55568)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Invested

$8,272.52

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

46%

57-68 (125)

JhonAlexanderHinestrozaCTR

Invested

$1,510.77

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

55%

1178-955 (2133)

hi774cARB<$100

Invested

$4,494.39

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$697.12

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

Both legs:

No$3,400.8442.7¢-$934.05

Yes$1,093.5560¢+$236.94

xwingboyCTR

Invested

$5,147.5

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

66%

335-174 (509)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$3,466.28

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$330.93

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,542.22

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$553.14

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

Both legs:

Yes$2,516.8975.9¢-$228.85

No$1,025.3445.3¢-$324.29

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$2,966.36

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$312.69

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

mde4life1986

Yes

Invested

$1,942.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$597.92

Record

47%

161-179 (340)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$1,866.89

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$88.57

Record

49%

6216-6354 (12570)

GamblingOdyssey

Yes

Invested

$1,937.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$328.31

Record

51%

906-854 (1760)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,085.64

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$104.81

Record

39%

1400-2160 (3560)

Both legs:

Yes$1,218.759.6¢+$274

No$866.9438.5¢-$169.19

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,796.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$73.47

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Yes$1,011.559.5¢+$229.5

No$785.0538.7¢-$156.03

VenusianCTR

Invested

$2,095.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$640.06

Record

51%

1246-1188 (2434)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,283.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.45

Record

53%

16539-14712 (31251)

Both legs:

Yes$751.8560¢+$112.78

No$532.0540.1¢-$120.23

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,147.41

Value

$877.07

PnL

-$270.34

Record

50%

1182-1169 (2351)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$646.93

Value

$722.69

PnL

+$75.76

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$548.36

Value

$634.59

PnL

+$86.23

Record

57%

12394-9456 (21850)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$677.38

Value

$488.41

PnL

-$188.98

Record

53%

1287-1130 (2417)

snoopy.traderCTR

Invested

$100.08

Value

$281.81

PnL

+$181.74

Record

41%

336-493 (829)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$271.93

Value

$280.57

PnL

+$8.64

Record

52%

14262-13030 (27292)

tradecraftARB<$100

Invested

$144.01

Value

$237.46

PnL

+$93.45

Record

51%

6302-6067 (12369)

Both legs:

No$84.5115.6¢+$83.95

Yes$59.559.5¢+$9.5

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$89.31

Value

$139.34

PnL

+$50.03

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 30 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (26 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.