Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

16 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$266.28

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,813

Combined PnL+$286.61

Up2 traders

Total Value$19.23

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$20.33

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.5¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$19.51	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 86.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$104.62	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.69	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 88¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.86	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 83.1¢	$325.65	$388.39	+$62.74	67% 99930-48308 (148238)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 85.5¢	$272.72	$301.46	+$28.73	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 85.8¢	$238.73	$247.44	+$8.71	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 70¢	$57.72	$69.53	+$12.37	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 89.8¢	$58.4	$61.43	+$3.02	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$47.05	$53.68	+$6.63	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
GO GoodRecipient<$100	Downavg 85¢	$42.5	$47.25	+$4.75	43% 656-861 (1517)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$18.91	$20.5	+$1.59	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$10.75	$12.63	+$1.88	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89.8¢	$11.1	$11.44	+$0.34	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 81¢	$9.01	$8.95	-$0.06	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$28.8	$6.6	-$22.2	57% 12760-9487 (22247)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 80¢	$4.05	$4.08	+$0.03	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.12	$2.19	+$0.07	58% 51349-37471 (88820)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,107.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$19.51

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,066.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$104.62

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,106.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.69

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,064.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.86

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$325.65

Value

$388.39

PnL

+$62.74

Record

67%

99930-48308 (148238)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$272.72

Value

$301.46

PnL

+$28.73

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$238.73

Value

$247.44

PnL

+$8.71

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$57.72

Value

$69.53

PnL

+$12.37

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$58.4

Value

$61.43

PnL

+$3.02

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$47.05

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$6.63

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

GoodRecipient<$100

Down

Invested

$42.5

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$4.75

Record

43%

656-861 (1517)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.91

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$1.59

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.75

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$1.88

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.44

PnL

+$0.34

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.06

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$22.2

Record

57%

12760-9487 (22247)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.