Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

18 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (95%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 95%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$19.76

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 19 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,416

Combined PnL+$13.01

Down1 trader

Total Value$74.25

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$6.75

Up — 95%Down — 5%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$29.03	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 89.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30.95	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 84.2¢	$721.04	$717.73	+$4.97	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 82.4¢	$356.58	$357.13	+$0.55	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 78.4¢	$187.99	$196.5	+$8.51	57% 6774-5010 (11784)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$67.5	$74.25	+$6.75	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$54.37	$49.37	-$3.51	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80¢	$40	$39.75	-$0.25	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
GO GoodRecipient<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$32.2	$34.6	+$2.4	43% 656-861 (1517)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 57¢	$28.5	$25.25	-$3.25	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 54¢	$21.6	$20.2	-$1.4	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$16.37	$18.4	+$2.03	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$17.9	$17.91	+$0.01	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 91.3¢	$17.74	$17.53	-$0.21	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$7.3	$9.22	+$1.92	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 68¢	$6.8	$8.65	+$1.85	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$3.75	$4.71	+$0.96	68% 1708-799 (2507)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.63	+$0.08	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.68	+$0.27	56% 58635-45291 (103926)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,402.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.03

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,405.78

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30.95

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$721.04

Value

$717.73

PnL

+$4.97

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

thesidehustle

Invested

$356.58

Value

$357.13

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$187.99

Value

$196.5

PnL

+$8.51

Record

57%

6774-5010 (11784)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.5

Value

$74.25

PnL

+$6.75

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$54.37

Value

$49.37

PnL

-$3.51

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$39.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

GoodRecipient<$100

Invested

$32.2

Value

$34.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

43%

656-861 (1517)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$3.25

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$16.37

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$2.03

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.9

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$17.74

Value

$17.53

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$1.92

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$1.85

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$0.96

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 19 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.