Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$58.2
Smart Money Signal
17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $521.1 | $514.69 | -$6.41 | 50% 5579-5642 (11221) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 51.4¢ | $311.47 | $378.97 | +$67.5 | 56% 14912-11721 (26633) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 75.9¢ | $279.53 | $238.52 | -$41 | 55% 7784-6369 (14153) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.1¢ | $170.92 | $176 | +$5.08 | 93% 24291-1810 (26101) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 81.3¢ | $157.94 | $165.56 | +$7.62 | 60% 12577-8352 (20929) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $149.43 | $145.58 | -$3.85 | 54% 8332-7022 (15354) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $104.14 | $90.89 | -$13.24 | 46% 38661-45750 (84411) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.7¢ | $78.97 | — | -$78.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.7¢ | $25.17 | $90.89 | +$65.72 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 92.3¢ | $119.91 | $104.8 | -$15.11 | 55% 8959-7393 (16352) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 68¢ | $70 | $102.94 | +$32.94 | 74% 103036-36547 (139583) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $37.2 | — | -$37.2 | 49% 78491-82056 (160547) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $34.84 | $67 | +$32.16 | 56% 8338-6477 (14815) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $50.1 | — | -$50.1 | 55% 18359-14947 (33306) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $20 | $30.69 | +$10.69 | 65% 112557-59402 (171959) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $30.5 | $62.24 | +$31.74 | 35% 19115-36121 (55236) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $33.09 | — | -$33.09 | 58% 38482-27564 (66046) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 37.1¢ | $23.94 | $59.99 | +$36.05 | 64% 24852-13722 (38574) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $9.25 | $25 | +$15.75 | 62% 44272-27256 (71528) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $17.05 | $23.62 | +$6.57 | 55% 24171-19504 (43675) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $16.66 | $17.18 | +$0.52 | 64% 4319-2379 (6698) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $17 | $25 | +$8 | 56% 58622-45278 (103900) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $9.66 | — | -$9.66 | 59% 7083-4987 (12070) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3698-2861 (6559) |
Invested
$521.1
Value
$514.69
PnL
-$6.41
Record
50%
5579-5642 (11221)
Invested
$311.47
Value
$378.97
PnL
+$67.5
Record
56%
14912-11721 (26633)
Invested
$279.53
Value
$238.52
PnL
-$41
Record
55%
7784-6369 (14153)
Invested
$170.92
Value
$176
PnL
+$5.08
Record
93%
24291-1810 (26101)
Invested
$157.94
Value
$165.56
PnL
+$7.62
Record
60%
12577-8352 (20929)
Invested
$149.43
Value
$145.58
PnL
-$3.85
Record
54%
8332-7022 (15354)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$104.14
Value
$90.89
PnL
-$13.24
Record
46%
38661-45750 (84411)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$119.91
Value
$104.8
PnL
-$15.11
Record
55%
8959-7393 (16352)
BoneOhioInvested
$70
Value
$102.94
PnL
+$32.94
Record
74%
103036-36547 (139583)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$37.2
Value
—
PnL
-$37.2
Record
49%
78491-82056 (160547)
Invested
$34.84
Value
$67
PnL
+$32.16
Record
56%
8338-6477 (14815)
Invested
$50.1
Value
—
PnL
-$50.1
Record
55%
18359-14947 (33306)
Invested
$20
Value
$30.69
PnL
+$10.69
Record
65%
112557-59402 (171959)
Invested
$30.5
Value
$62.24
PnL
+$31.74
Record
35%
19115-36121 (55236)
Invested
$33.09
Value
—
PnL
-$33.09
Record
58%
38482-27564 (66046)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$36.05
Record
64%
24852-13722 (38574)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$15.75
Record
62%
44272-27256 (71528)
Invested
$17.05
Value
$23.62
PnL
+$6.57
Record
55%
24171-19504 (43675)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$16.66
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$0.52
Record
64%
4319-2379 (6698)
Invested
$17
Value
$25
PnL
+$8
Record
56%
58622-45278 (103900)
Invested
$9.66
Value
—
PnL
-$9.66
Record
59%
7083-4987 (12070)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3698-2861 (6559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Up — $514.69
CrouchPredictions
Up — $378.97
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $238.52
hoodquant
Up — $176
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $165.56
sfkjbsr457
Up — $145.58
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $104.8
BoneOhio
Up — $102.94
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0